U.S. brewers shipped an estimated 161,586,015 barrels of beer in 2022, a -4.6% decline versus 2021, according to the Beer Institute (BI), citing domestic tax paid estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
The decline is equivalent to a loss of 7,762,205 barrels of beer year-over-year (YoY). It is significantly larger than the YoY decline recorded in 2021 (-0.7% YoY, or -1,141,606 barrels).
December 2022 shipments declined -14.1%, to 11.9 million barrels – a decline of more than 1.9 million barrels versus December 2021, according to the BI. The month was the largest YoY decline recorded, in a year in which shipments declined 10 out of the 12 months.
January (-11.8%) had the second largest decline in 2022. March (+1.4%) and August (+5%) were the only months to record YoY increases in shipments.
Beer shipments to wholesalers also significantly declined in both Q4 and full-year 2022, according to the BI in its state shipments report. Approximately 198,723,000 barrels of beer/malt category products were shipped to wholesalers in 2022, a decrease of about 6.6 million barrels versus full-year 2021.
More than half of those category losses took place in Q4, between October and December, according to the report. December was “the most challenging of these months,” declining by about 2 million barrels versus December 2021 (-12.8% YoY).
BI VP of research Danelle Kosmal cited “several headwinds” as reasons for Q4 declines, including “harsh weather conditions,” “the ‘tripledemic’ that peaked in December” and “ongoing challenges to consumers” as prices across food and beverage continue to rise.
“I would note that overall, 2021 was a very strong year in shipments,” Kosmal said in the report. “In fact, it was the strongest year for shipments in a decade. Naturally, one would expect that volume estimates would decline compared to 2021, which are very tough comps.”
Because the past few years have been “somewhat wonky in data trends” as the industry continues to adapt and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Kosmal recommended looking to 2019 shipments “as a comparison benchmark.”
“In that case, 2022 volume estimates are still slightly below pre-pandemic levels, down -2.2% compared to 2019 shipments,” Kosmal said.
The shipments reports come as full-year scan data begins to roll in. As reported earlier this week, beer dollar sales in multi-outlet and convenience channels reached $44.6 billion in 2022, a +0.8% increase YoY, according to the market research firm IRI. However, volume – determined by case sales – declined -4.8% YoY.
“There has been a lot of coverage recently about record-breaking dollar sales for alcohol and for beer in scan trends,” Kosmal told Brewbound. “However, volume trends for on- and off-premise channels combined tell a different story, particularly for the last quarter of 2022. This trend is not specific to beer, as volume growth for wine and spirits has slowed significantly during the past several months.
“That said there is a lot of momentum building for January and February, with the Super Bowl, post-dry January engagement, and hopefully some improved weather across the country,” she continued.
The January 2023 domestic tax paid estimate release is slated for March 3, 2023. It should be noted the full-year and December shipment numbers are just estimates, and may change in the coming months as more data is evaluated by the BI and TTB.