Single-serve cans and 12-pack cans gained the most share among package formats for beer from Brewers Association-defined independent craft breweries, chief economist Bart Watson wrote in his annual packaging trends report.
In 2022, BA-defined independent craft breweries’ can 12-packs gained +3.2% share, to 19.3%, and single-serve cans gained +1.4%, to 5.2%. Can 4-packs were somewhat flat (+0.1% share), while can 6-packs lost -1% share.
“All of the gains were really in two pack sizes: 12-pack cans and singles,” Watson wrote. “[Six]-packs dropped back to 2020 share levels and 4-packs were largely static.”
The BA defines an independent craft brewery as one who makes fewer than 6 million barrels annually and is not more than 25% owned by a beverage-alcohol producer that is not also an independent craft brewery. The brewery must also possess a Brewer’s Notice from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) and produce beer.
Scan data producers such as IRI and NielsenIQ do not separate non-BA craft producers, so can package data for the broader craft segment differs due to the inclusion of sales from brands owned by large global breweries, such as Molson Coors’ Blue Moon and Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Kona (outside of Hawaii), as well as formerly independent craft breweries that were acquired, such as Kirin-owned New Belgium and Bell’s and Heineken-owned Lagunitas.
Among overall craft brewers, can 12-packs gained the most share, increasing +3%, to 18.3%, followed by single-serve cans, which increased +2.2%, to 7.2%, which Watson attributed to New Belgium’s success with the format for its Voodoo Ranger brand family.
“The inclusion of New Belgium in particular pushes single share higher, though the growth in share is similar (43% share growth for singles in IRI craft versus 37% in BA craft),” Watson wrote. “So while New Belgium is still dominating in this market, growth in singles is occurring across both independent and national brands.”
In total craft, can 4-packs’ share declined -0.1%, to 5.7%, and can 6-packs’ share declined -0.5%, to 24.2%.
The largest share discrepancy between BA-defined craft breweries and broader craft is in can 6-packs, which claim 30.2% of BA-defined craft packaged volume, compared to 24.2% of broader craft.
In both bottles and cans, 6-packs lost -3.3% share last year, dipping below 50% of all packaged craft sales to 48.4%. Bottles (-2.3% share) fared worse than cans (-1%), and “along with singles, 12-packs were largely the beneficiary,” Watson wrote, adding that “something that goes behind the immediate dynamics and consumer behaviors we saw during COVID-19” could be at play.
“One theory is that as the economy tightens, more consumers are doing ‘beer math’ and really thinking about how they spend their dollars,” he wrote. “This type of logic has been used to explain growth both in larger pack sizes (better value per beer) and in singles (less spend per trip). To me, that kind of dual direction theorizing is a bit fuzzy, and I think we need to delve a bit deeper into things like channels, consumers, and occasions.”
Pinning channel and style to one particular pack size can be difficult, save for one: imperial IPA drove single-serve can sales at convenience stores. Across other styles and channels, there are some connections, but Watson cautioned some may be “oversimplification.”
“Similarly, 12-pack share growth is heavily weighted to multi-outlet (I presume mostly grocery, but can’t see that deep) and mix packs,” Watson wrote. “Not all mix packs grew, but IPA mix packs and ‘other beer mix packs’ (several of the leading packs were very IPA heavy) drove the majority of that growth.”
Overall, craft brewers and drinkers continue to prefer cans over bottles, with cans gaining +4% share in 2022. Last year, that trend appeared to be decelerating, but its slowdown flattened out in 2022, possibly due to increased can supply which “made it more feasible for brewers to continue shifting to cans,” Watson wrote.
