Velocity of dollar sales at bars and restaurants for the week ending December 11 surpassed all points in 2019, according to the on-premise market research firm CGA.
Sales velocity increased +9% to more than $80,000 in the week versus the week before (week ending December 4), a +78% increase versus the same week in 2020, and +4% increase versus 2019. The last 12 weeks recorded a +58% increase in velocity compared to 2020, and +22% increase versus 2019.
The latest increase was driven by a +7% increase in check value compared to the week before, as well as a +2% increase in traffic.
All five key states observed recorded an increase in sales velocity, led by New York, which increased +14% week-over-week. New York reported a +139% increase compared to the same week in 2020, but a -8% decrease versus 2019.
Texas reported the second largest increase (+11%), followed by Illinois (+9%), Florida (+9%) and California (+8%). California reported the largest increase in sales velocity year-over-year (+236%), while Florida, where on-premise restrictions were lifted earlier last year than in many other states, recorded the smallest increase (+32%). Texas reported the largest increase compared to 2019 (+10%), while Illinois (-11%) was the only other state to decline in addition to New York.
CGA Consumer Survey: On-Premise Menus Impact More than Half of Consumers Off-Premise Buying Decisions
More than half of consumers (53%) surveyed in CGA’s latest COVID-19 sales impact report reported that drink options in bars and restaurants influence their alcohol purchases in stores.
Nearly two-thirds of consumers said they first tried their favorite drinks in bars and restaurants, emphasizing the impact of on-premise trial on off-premise retail sales. CGA found the results in a survey it conducted of 1,993 consumers from Florida, Texas, California, Illinois and New York between December 8-13.
Seven in 10 consumers surveyed said they visited on-premise locations for food in the past two weeks, while two in five said they visited for drink-led occasions. Similarly, seven in 10 plan to go out in the next two weeks for food-led occasions (a -2% decline from November 2021), while 46% plan to for drink-led occasions (+4% versus November).
Frequency of on-premise visits declined slightly from the period before (November 16-19), with 71% of respondents reporting visiting more than three times in the past three months (-5% versus the period before), and 15% reporting visiting twice (-2%). The number of respondents who reported visiting the on-premise once in the past 3 months increased from 7% to 14% versus the previous period.
However, in the past two weeks, 34% of respondents reported visiting bars and restaurants more than usual (+10% vs. November), while 14% (-4%) reported visiting less than usual. Slightly more than half (52%) reported visiting the same as they usually do (-6% vs. November).
Of the 14% who reported visiting less often, more than half (53%) reported concerns over COVID-19 cases. The second highest concern was less disposable income (38%), which increased +5% versus the previous period, which may be due in part to the increased expenses during the holiday season.
Concern for on-premise restrictions – such as social distancing and mandatory mask requirements – causing consumers to avoid on-premise locations declined -4% to 18% compared to November.
Going into the holidays, 62% of respondents said they plan to visit the on-premise during the holiday season, while 21% said they will not, and 17% said they were unsure. Nearly half (47%) said they will visit bars and restaurants specifically on New Year’s Eve.
Looking ahead to the start of the new year, 54% of respondents said they are very likely or likely to take part in Dry January, the tradition of abstaining from alcohol during the first month of the year. More than half of those respondents (54%) noted that their participation will include abstaining from alcohol in bars and/or restaurants.
To replace their alcoholic beverages, the majority of respondents (57%) said they would turn to soft drinks instead. The fourth ranked drink of choice was non-alcoholic (NA) beer (23%), followed by NA wine (20%), mocktails (19%), and alcohol-free spirits (18%).
IRI: Q3 2021 On-Premise Menu Spend Rivals Q3 2019
Total menu spend in U.S. casual and fine dining on-premise locations – averaged on a per-venue basis – totaled $679,000 in Q3 2021, according to the market research firm IRI, citing data from its newly launched On-Premise Decision Suite.
The data analysis resource launched last week, and uses POS data tracking and consumer surveys to provide on-premise sales and consumer trends, dating back to Q1 2019.
Total menu spend in Q3 nearly reached pre-COVID-19 levels, with Q3 2019 recording a total of $690,000 in on
-premise spend. California over-indexed more than any other region in the country, with an average total menu spend of $918,000 per venue, a +2% increase year-over-year versus 2019.
The Plains – which IRI defines as Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota – recorded the lowest average spend for the quarter at $496,000, a -13% decline compared to Q3 2019.
The Northeast had the largest difference compared to its pre-pandemic levels, with $669,000 in total menu spend per venue – a -20% decrease versus Q3 2019.
When separating food and beverage, sales of alcoholic beverages in the quarter declined in several regions compared to Q3 2019.
Despite its total menu spend increase, alcohol beverage sales decreased -6% in California versus Q3 2019. The Northeast had the largest decline in bev-alc sales (-33%) year-over-year, followed by the Mid-South (-29%), the Plains (-25%) and the Midwest (-24%).
“This data tells part of the story about strong areas for on-premise food and beverage consumption on a quarter-by-quarter basis,” Boris Oglesby, IRI executive vice president and practice leader for alcohol beverage and tobacco, said in a press release. “However, there are many, nuanced, often non-intuitive trends that indicate pockets of opportunity for brands.