With the summer selling season’s last gasp just days away, NielsenIQ VP of beverage alcohol though leadership Jon Berg expects ready-to-drink (RTD) offerings and beer “to have positive momentum” this Labor Day holiday weekend. However, Berg cautioned that results may be “slightly muted” compared to 2021 as shoppers are “really starting to feel substantial impact from inflation now.”
“Shoppers may be looking for value in their repertoire at this point in the year, then perhaps make the ‘affordable luxury’ splurge in Q4, whether it’s for entertaining or gifting,” Berg said in a statement shared with Brewbound. “We’ve seen consumers back in outdoor events and venues this summer especially, it will be hard to see the summer come to an end for many. We are looking for a holdover effect into the start of football season as consumers won’t want to let go of their normalized summer experience.”
The market research firm shared a refresher of 2021 Labor Day weekend trends, including:
- Hard seltzers topped the $200 million mark, with the segment nearly doubling in size compared to 2019. However, hard seltzer sales in 2021 declined -3.9% compared to Labor Day 2020.
- Off-premise beer category (beer, FMBs and cider) dollar sales declined -8% in summer 2021 compared to summer 2020. Spirits declined -4%, while wine declined -9%.
- However, off-premise beer category sales in summer 2021 increased +9.3% compared to summer 2019.
- For the two weeks ending September 11, off-premise beer sales declined -6.3%, to $1.6 billion, compared to the same two-week period in 2020. FMB and cider sales declined -1.6%, to more than $368.9 million, during that same period.
- Overall off-premise alcohol sales in summer 2021 were up +14% compared to summer 2019.
- Prepared cocktails sales increased +45.1% compared to 2020, driven by RTD cocktails, which increased sales +106.6% compared to summer 2020.
Beer Category Dollars +4.7%, Volume -0.1% Over L4W; Imports +1.7% Share, Hard Seltzer -1.8%
As Labor Day 2022 approaches, beer category dollar sales are up +4.7%, while volume sales are down -0.1%, for the four-week period ending August 20, NielsenIQ reported this week. The average price of beer is up $1.31 during that period, with the average case price at $28.30 for the last month.
Segments growing dollar share over the last four weeks include imports (+1.7%, to 22.5%), domestic super premiums (+0.2%, to 10.2%) and FMBs minus seltzers (+1.2%, to 8.7%). All other segments were either flat (below premiums and malt liquor) or lost share (craft, hard seltzer, premium regulars, premium lights, and cider). Hard seltzer (-1.8%, to 9.3%) and craft beer (-0.7%, to 11.4%) were the largest share donors in the off-premise over the last month, according to NielsenIQ data.
Seven segments (imports, domestic super premiums, FMBs minus seltzers, premium regulars, premium lights, below premiums and malt liquor) increased dollar sales over the last month. Imports gained steam, increasing dollar sales +13.4% over the last four weeks, accelerating compared to YTD trends (+8.2%). FMBs increased sales +21% over the last month, well ahead of YTD trends (+11.4%).
Also improving trends over the last month compared to year to date were domestic super premiums (+6.5% vs. +2.3%), premium regulars (+3% vs. -1.2%), premium lights (+2.4% compared to -1.4%), cider (-0.5% vs. -5%), below premiums (+4.9% vs. -1.5%), and malt liquor (+7.8% vs. 0.0%).
Craft beer dollar sales improved compared to YTD trends, declining -1.7% over the last four weeks, compared to -5.9% YTD. Meanwhile, the dollar sales declines of hard seltzers accelerated over the last month (-12.2%, compared to -10.2% YTD).
Year-to-date through August 20, off-premise beer category dollar sales are up only slightly (0.3%), while volume sales have declined -4.4%, NielsenIQ shared.