Bars and restaurants are unlikely to welcome new customers soon, as the number of people who feel comfortable going out has hit its max.
“The willingness to visit the on-premise has stayed relatively flat for the past two months, so we think we’re in the long haul,” Nielsen CGA client solutions director Matthew Crompton said during a webinar hosted by the Brewers Association.
Just under half of respondents (48%) in Nielsen CGA’s most recent survey said they had been out for a meal since on-premise establishments began reopening. This marks a 12% increase since mid-June when restaurants in more restricted states, such as New York, began reopening for outdoor service. Only 15% of respondents said they had gone out for a drink.
Week-over-week sales increases at restaurants nationwide have plateaued since July 11, indicating that the country has reached its ceiling of patrons willing to dine out.
“As we look towards the future there, we’re not really going to see any drastic changes to this, unless a vaccine is found,” Crompton said.
Of those who have not returned, 52% said they did not feel safe being in close proximity to strangers and 49% said they don’t feel safe going out.
Those who have not yet returned to a bar or restaurant are unlikely to do so. Of respondents who have not returned, 38% said they will go back to restaurants when there is a vaccine or treatment available and 20% said they will go back “once the threat of COVID-19 is completely gone.”
With an influx of patrons unlikely, several restaurateurs told the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee they need more help from the federal government during a special hearing on Friday.
“We need help, like, yesterday,” said Sondra Bernstein, owner of Sonoma, California-based The Girl & The Fig. “Once winter happens and we can’t serve outside, we’re going to have to lay off another 60 people. I don’t know how my dream of what I’ve done for all these years is going to disintegrate.”
Bernstein and Christine Hà, owner of Houston, Texas-based The Blind Goat, both told the committee they have waived their salaries since the pandemic began. Both secured funds from the Paycheck Protection Program, which allowed small businesses to pay staff, rent, utilities and interest on their mortgages, but could use more support.
“We need help with paying for PPE, putting up plexiglass to protect our staff and the guests,” Hà said. “If there was an expansion on the restrictions on such federal aid to help us do other things that are required to operate the business, that would be helpful.”
Those measures help diners feel better about returning to restaurants, Nielsen CGA found. Asked what would encourage them to visit on-premise establishments, survey respondents said outdoor seating areas (42%), gloves and masks for staff (41%), fewer tables and patrons (40%), additional hygiene programs (33%) and single-use menus (27%).
Restaurants, which brewery taprooms and brewpubs are considered in many states, have been hit hard. So far, government assistance during the pandemic has included PPP loans and economic injury disaster loans (EIDL), both made available through the U.S. Small Business Association. However, many businesses have exhausted the funds they received.
“If Congress adjourns without galvanizing an industry specific restaurant recovery fund, extending the Paycheck Protection Program with a second round, or providing other enhanced relief, more restaurants will close, more employees will lose their jobs, and the economic crisis of the pandemic will deepen,” National Restaurant Association chairman Melvin Rodrigue told the Ways and Means Committee.
“I remind you, there is no industry that has been hit harder,” he continued. “First to close, last to reopen — an industry that relies on social interaction during a time of social distancing. In the restaurant industry, the landscape is stark. One in six restaurants are closed; 40% of those still open are likely to close within the next six months without additional federal aid.”
However, there is a faint bright spot on the horizon for independent restaurant owners: 21% of respondents told Nielsen CGA that they will frequent chain restaurants less once bars and restaurants are permitted to reopen fully.
For craft brewers, the good news Nielsen CGA found is that their consumer base is more likely to dine out and they are more loyal to craft beer when they do.
More than half (51%) of craft beer drinkers have dined out and 18% have gone out for a drink, Nielsen CGA found. Half of all craft beer drinkers have ordered a craft beer at an on-premise establishment in the two weeks leading up to the survey, significantly higher than the 17% of overall survey respondents who have ordered a craft beer.
One quarter of craft beer drinkers have visited a brewery taproom and 27% of them have frequented neighborhood bars. More than half (52%) of craft beer drinkers have dined at independently owned restaurants.
BeerBoard, which tracks draft beer sales nationwide, reported that 92% of the country’s draft-pouring establishments were open during its survey period of September 25-27, marking the second week in a row at this open rate, the highest since BeerBoard began tracking draft lines in May.
Craft beer claimed the lion’s share of tap handles nationwide at 59.7%, but accounted for 36.6% of total volume. Domestics took up 25.9% of tap handles, and accounted for 53.5% of volume. Imports trailed both, with 14.4% of tap handles and 9.9% of volume
Nationwide, beer sales volume has increased 13.5% over the September 11-13 weekend, but is down 35% compared to the same time last year. Volume sales in nearly all of BeerBoard’s key states but one have increased compared to the September 11-13 weekend, with Florida (+21.4%), Tennessee (+21%) and Georgia (+19.1%) outpacing national trends. Only Minnesota (-0.3%) saw a decline in sales.
On the same day as the Ways and Means Committee meeting, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis lifted all capacity restrictions on restaurants and bars in the state. DeSantis’ executive order also bans local officials from limiting restaurant capacity to less than 50%.
For any capacity limitations between 50% and 100%, local governments must “quantify the economic impact of each limitation or requirement on those restaurants, and explain why each limitation or requirement is necessary for public health.” DeSantis also suspended individual fines and penalties associated with COVID-19 requirements, such as mask wearing.
Bargoers packed the dancefloor at one establishment in Fort Lauderdale:
DeSantis opened all Florida bars Friday. They are celebrating at Elbo Room in Fort Lauderdale pic.twitter.com/9Fx9qFvAS6
— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) September 27, 2020