At-the-brewery sales from January to May 2023 increased +2.6% compared to the same period in 2022, according to Arryved POS data parsed by Brewers Association (BA) chief economist Bart Watson in a recent blog post.
However, sales increased at about half the rate of inflation, which the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracked at 5% for the period.
“In real terms, you’re looking at a slight decline in sales,” Watson wrote.
January through May in both 2023 and 2022 recorded sales data that was “significantly stronger than the first portion of 2021 (a period where COVID-19 trends were much more heavily a part of the equation),” he added.
The data from Arryved, which specializes in point-of-sale systems for craft breweries, contained information about 300 million transactions from more than 2,000 locations. To provide the clearest picture, Watson narrowed down the set to 600 breweries and taprooms that logged sales during each month in the focus period.
Nationwide, the average price of a pint was $6.74 in May 2023, up from $6.05 in January 2021, excluding most price promotions. This increase “is slightly below” national consumer price index (CPI) figures for beer away from home, Watson noted. The CPI for beer away from home in May increased +5% year-over-year, according to the BLS.
Increases in both the beer away from home CPI and Arryved-tracked pint prices have slowed steadily since their high points in 2022. Arryved pint price increases maxed out close to +6% in March 2022, while the beer away from home CPI continued to climb last year, reaching a high point of +7% in October 2022.
Pint price increases vary geographically, and Watson found that of the 11 states with the most sales in Arryved, Texas, Florida and Georgia breweries increased print prices the most. The average price per pint in those states increased by +$0.74, from $6 in 2021 to $6.74 in 2023. Pennsylvania, New York and Virginia on average had the lowest price increase; pints in those states increased +$0.41, from $6.42 in 2021 to $6.83 in 2023.
“This may suggest that operators are seeing upper bounds on how much they can push price,” Watson wrote.
Beer accounted for nearly three-quarters (72%) of all at-the-brewery sales in January 2021, but has been in “clear and persistent decline” since then, Watson wrote. In May 2023, beer accounted for about 65% of sales, less than two-thirds.
In the last two years, food sales have been the largest driver of sales growth, increasing to 18.4% of sales March-May 2023, up from 15.8% in March-May 2021. Sales of non-beer beverage alcohol have also been increasing, but are still relatively small (slightly more than 8% in May 2023, up +1.6% from May 2021).
In addition to price, Watson examined various metrics of sales by time of day, including the percentage of sales at breweries and taprooms after 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. Sales after 9 p.m. accounted for roughly 6.5% of total sales in May 2023, which plummeted to slightly more than 2% after 10 p.m.
Watson found more sales happen between 5-7 p.m. than other times of the day, with a peak around 6:30 p.m. Weekdays follow a similar pattern, but sales on Saturday and Sunday spread out wider and begin picking up earlier.