NBWA: Beer Purchasers’ Index Indicates Out-of-Stocks Persist
The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) monthly Beer Purchasers’ Index found that wholesalers are reporting smaller inventories of beer at risk of going out of code.
“The ‘at-risk’ inventory index at 35 (inventory at risk of going out of code in the next 30 days) is still well below 50, signaling continued supply constraints and out-of-stocks in distribution,” NBWA chief economist Lester Jones wrote.
The July overall beer index declined seven points to 64, down from 71 in June. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion, while a reading lower than 50 indicates contraction.
Two segments dipped into contraction from July 2020 to July 2021. Premium regulars’ reading declined 18 points, to 40 in July 2021. Below premiums’ reading declined 27 points, to 30 in July 2021. Premium lights’ reading declined, but the segment remained in expansion with a drop of 15 points, to a reading of 56.
Flavored malt beverages and hard seltzers declined 25 points, the second largest drop compared to below premiums, from a reading of 94 points in July 2020 to 69 in July 2021, indicating the segment is still expanding.
“The lower index relative to July 2020 indicates that more distributors are reporting they are ordering ‘about the same’ amount of product as the same time last year,” Jones wrote. “This is not a big surprise, as the segment has experienced significant amounts of distribution growth over the past 12 months.”
With a July 2021 reading of 50, craft beer entered expansion territory compared to July 2020, marking the segment’s fourth consecutive month of expansion. The only other segment to increase compared to July 2020 was imports, which increased seven points to 66 in July 2021.
The cider segment remained in contraction with a reading of 38, a slight increase over its July 2020 reading of 37.
CGA: On-Premise Sales Velocity Outperforming Pre-Pandemic Levels
Nationwide on-premise sales velocity increased 72% over last year and 26% over 2019 for the week ending July 24, market research firm CGA reported.
“Across all states, value velocity remains strongly positive compared to last year, with all key states ahead of 2019,” CGA wrote.
Of the key markets CGA has tracked since the on-premise began reopening in June 2020, the states that kept more restrictions in place last summer are experiencing the strongest growth. California (+108%) and New York (+104%) bars and restaurants’ sales velocity increased 104% compared to the same week in 2020. Illinois (+74%) and Florida (+82%) also posted strong year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, Texas, which loosened restrictions sooner than many other states, only posted single-digit growth (+6%) over the same week last year.
However, Texas sales velocity posted the biggest increase over its pre-pandemic level for the same week. Lone Star state bars and restaurants’ sales velocity increased +37% compared to the week that ended July 27, 2019. Florida (+34%) and California (+30%) were close behind compared to 2019. Illinois (+10%) and New York (+7%) posted modest growth over pre-pandemic levels.
New York posted the strongest week-over-week growth (+3%). Illinois and California were tied at +2%, followed by Florida at +1%. Texas was flat compared to the prior week.
Beer Institute: June Shipments Decline -0.7%
U.S. brewers shipped an estimated 16.1 million barrels of beer in June 2021 — the largest month of shipments yet in 2021 — but it fell just 116,000 barrels short of June 2020’s shipment volume (16.216 million barrels), according to the Beer Institute (BI), which cited unofficial estimates of domestic tax paid shipments from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
Shipments had increased every month in 2021, increasing in January (+5.3%), February (+3.3%), March (+0.9%), April (+8%) and May (+8.9%).
Through the first six months of 2021, U.S. brewers have shipped more than 85.3 million barrels of beer, a 4.1% increase (or 3,348,970 barrels) compared to the same period in 2020.
Meanwhile, state shipments to wholesalers increased +2.3% in June, to more than 19.5 million barrels, the BI reported. Year-to-date, state shipments to wholesalers are up 4.3%, to more than $102.2 million barrels compared to the same six-month period in 2020.