Circana: Craft Declines Accelerate Entering Colder Months; C-Store Volume in the Red in L4W

Craft declines have accelerated slightly as seasonal buying patterns return to the off-premise, according to Circana in the data firm’s monthly beer report.

Total craft dollar sales declined -0.8% year-to-date (YTD) through October 8 in Circana-tracked off-premise channels, slightly above the -0.7% decline recorded in Circana’s September report. Craft volume, measured in case sales, remained down -4.9%. YTD.

In the last four weeks, craft dollar sales declined -2.5% year-over-year (YoY), and volume declined -5.4%. In the previous four-week period (ending September 10), craft dollar sales were down -0.7% YoY, and volume was down -4.5%.

The only craft beer style to record volume growth YTD was golden ales (dollar sales +4.5%, volume +1.3%). IPAs also recorded dollar sales growth (+4.3%), but declined in volume -0.3%. However, in the last four weeks, IPA was in the green (dollar sales +4.4% YoY, volume +1.4% YoY). All other styles except for golden ales (dollar sales +9.6%, volume +9.2%) were down in the four-week period.

New Belgium continues to dominate the craft top 30 list, with seven of the top 30 craft brands YTD. The Kirin-owned craft brewery recorded a combined dollar sales increase of +10.27% and volume +9.81% YTD across the seven brands, despite a few of the brands recording double-digit declines.

Included in New Belgium’s leading styles are two of the top three craft brands: Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales +12.9% YTD, volume +7.9%) and Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +90.9%, volume +89.1%). Both brands fall only below the top-selling, Circana-tracked craft brand Molson Coors’ Blue Moon (dollar sales -2.7%, volume -6.9%).

Eight other brands in the top 30 continue to record dollar sales and volume growth YTD, including (in order of dollar sales rank):

Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +6.7%, volume +1.4%);
Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Elysian Space Dust (dollar sales +2.2%, volume +0.4%);
A-B’s Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +40.3%, volume +37.9%);
Kirin’s Bell’s Two Hearted (dollar sales +5.6%, volume +2.1%);
New Belgium Voodoo Ranger variety pack (dollar sales +16.1%, volume +8.3%);
A-B’s Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug (dollar sales +102%, volume +93.8%);
A-B’s Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +8.9%, volume +6.8%);
And Bell’s seasonal (dollar sales +2.8%, volume +1.8%).

Ten brands also recorded dollar sales and volume growth in the last 12 weeks. However, the list is slightly different from the 10 brands to do so in the 12-week period recorded in the previous report (ending September 10). Elysian Space Dust (dollar sales +2.2%, volume +1.8%) and Bell’s seasonal (dollar sales +8.5%, volume +7.2%) joined the list of brands to record growth in the 12-week period, while Cigar City Jai Alai (dollar sales +2%, volume -1.4%) and Sierra Nevada Torpedo IPA (dollar sales -0.2%, volume -3.2%) dropped off the list.

Six craft brands recorded double-digit declines YTD:

Heineken’s Lagunitas IPA (dollar sales -12.9%, volume -17.3%);
Molson Coors’ Blue Moon Light Sky (dollar sales -21.8%, volume -25%);
New Belgium Fat Tire (dollar sales -15.9%, volume -19.5%);
New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -11.7%, volume -16%);
Lagunitas Little Sumpin Sumpin (dollar sales -16.2%, volume -20.1%);
New Belgium Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -17.7%, volume -21.9%);
Goose Island IPA (dollar sales -17.9%, volume -21.6%)

The convenience channel continues to tell a better story for craft, with total craft dollars up +4.6% YTD, and volume +0.1%. However, in the last four weeks, craft c-store dollar sales were up +3.3% YoY, while volume was down -0.2%.

Thirteen of the top 30 craft brands in c-stores recorded dollar sales and volume growth YTD, while nine have done so in the last four weeks.

New Belgium also dominates c-stores, with the top Voodoo Ranger brands accounting for 14.59% of craft dollars in the channel YTD. When including No. 30 Fat Tire, New Belgium crosses the 15% threshold to 15.08% share.

In the last four weeks, the momentum has continued, with New Belgium’s top brands accounting for 16.22% of craft dollars in the channel in the period. Voodoo Ranger’s top brands alone accounted for 15.76% share.

Some regional brands have also found traction in c-stores, with three that did not make the top 30 for total Circana-tracked channels making the list for c-stores:

Rhinegeist Truth IPA (dollar sales +9.3% YTD, volume +6%);
Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (dollar sales +25.7%, volume +18.4%);
And Tilray-owned 10 Barrel Pub Lager (dollar sales +29%, volume +22.8%).

In grocery, total craft dollar sales are down -3.4% YTD, and volume -6.9%. In the last four weeks, craft dollar sales were down -4.8% YoY, and volume -7.1% YoY – a significant decline in performance versus the four-week period recorded in the previous report, when craft dollars were down -2.8%, and volume -6.1%.

Seven of the top 30 craft brands in grocery recorded dollar sales and volume growth YTD: