The on-premise channel is set up for a big couple of days between Super Bowl Sunday and Valentine’s Day, according to market research firm CGA’s latest “On-Premise Impact Report.”
Valentine’s Day weekend recorded an +18% increase in velocity in 2021 compared to the average weekend for the holiday, driven by traffic and check value increases, CGA reported. The firm predicts another weekend of positive trends this year, as on-premise velocity and week-over-week performances in January followed trends similar to those in years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
During Valentine’s Day weekend 2021, on-premise drinking establishments reported an +8% increase in velocity compared to an average weekend for the year, while eating establishments reported a +23% increase. While fine dining, “polished casual” and casual dining establishments posted the largest increases for the weekend on average, premium bars and neighborhood bars also experienced “a similar level of velocity increase,” according to the report.
This year, Valentine’s Day follows Super Bowl LVI (February 13). While the sporting event is typically an off-premise occasion, sports bars see a +30% increase in sales compared to an average weekend, according to the report. Additionally, the host city of the event – Los Angeles this year – usually reports week-over-week increases in velocity for the Friday and Saturday before the game: Atlanta (+42% in 2019); Miami (+43% in 2020); Tampa (+20% in 2021).
“With these big on-premise events just around the corner, we should see an uptick in both traffic and check value,” Matthew Crompton, CGA regional director, North America, said in the report.
For the week through January 22, on-premise sales increased +3% nationally compared to the prior week, followed by a flat week through January 29. The most recent period outperformed 2019 (+7% year-over-year) and 2020 (+2%). CGA credited the growth to increased traffic (+3% week-over-week) and increased check value (+1%).
Four of the five key states observed reported a decrease in sales velocity week-over-week: New York (-11%), Illinois (-5%), California (-2%) and Florida (-1%). Texas (+1%) reported a slight increase for the period.
California recorded the highest year-over-year growth for the period (+114% vs. the same week in 2021), followed by New York (+52%), Illinois (+49%), Texas (+19%) and Florida (+17%). It should be noted that California and New York had some of the strictest on-premise protocols in place at the time in 2021.
When compared to the same period in 2020 – prior to COVID-19 restrictions – sales velocities for the most recent period decreased year-over-year in New York (-20%) and Illinois (-13%), but increased in Texas (+14%), California (+6%) and Florida (+1%).