On-premise chain accounts have bounced back from initial COVID-19 declines that shut down their businesses, but on-premise pains are far from over, according to CGA, the on-premise arm of market research firm NIQ.
CGA analyzed on-premise chain trends from 15 states, with 52-week data through April 20, 2024.
On-premise chain bev-alc dollar sales in the 52-week period increased +7.3% versus the same period in 2022. However, bev-alc sales also declined -2.5% year-over-year (YoY).
Despite the declines, beer has been gaining share of the total pie in on-premise chains. Beer share of total dollar sales in the channel increased +1.5 points from April 2022 to April 2024, now holding 34.4% share (up from 32.9%).
The largest share of the channel’s bev-alc dollar sales is still spirits (49.5%), but the category is in decline, losing 1.4 share points in the two-year period, after previously accounting for more than half the channel’s bev-alc dollar sales (50.9%). Wine is also in decline, losing 0.3 points of share in the 2-year period, to 15.8%.
Ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs) hold less than 1% share of bev-alc dollar sales in the channel, but the segment has been slowly gaining share, from 0.4% in 2022 to 0.6% in 2024.
CGA also analyzed category trends in the channel in each of the 15 observed states.
Beer dollar sales in the total on-premise channel declined -3% YoY thru April 20, 2024, and declined -1.1% in on-premise chains. The category gained share in on-premise chains in nine of the 15 states:
- Nevada (+4.3 points, to 33%);
- New York (+1.6 points, to 9.5%);
- Illinois (+1.4 points, to 14.3%);
- Pennsylvania (+1.3 points, to 10.8%);
- Tennessee (+1.3 points, to 20.5%);
- Colorado (+1.2 points, to 21.8%);
- Ohio (+1.1 points, to 17.3%);
- California (+0.8 points, to 19%);
- Arizona (+0.1 points, to 24.3%).
The significant share gains in Nevada were due to the “development of craft and domestic super premium,” according to the report.
In the remaining six states, beer share has declined between -1.9 and -0.2 points: Louisiana (-1.9 points, to 12.9%); North Carolina (-1.5 points, to 14.4%); Oregon (-1.2 points, to 8.9%); Georgia (-0.9 points, to 22.4%); Texas (-0.6 points, to 26.7%); Florida (-0.2 points, to 21.8%).
Spirits on-premise dollar sales declined -6.1% YoY, and -4.1% in on-premise chains. The category also recorded share growth in nine states:
- Georgia (+1 points, to 25%);
- Ohio (+0.7 points, to 16.7%);
- Washington (+0.6 points, to 16.8%);
- Oregon (+0.5 points, to 10.4%);
- New York (+0.5 points, to 14.7%);
- California (+0.5 points, to 22.7%);
- Pennsylvania (+0.4 points, to 17.9%);
- Tennessee (+0.3 points, to 28%);
- Colorado (+0.3 points, to 22.9%).
In the six states where spirits have lost share, delines ranged from -1.4 points to -0.1 points: Texas (-1.4 points, to 29.8%); Louisiana (-2.4 points, to 18.9%); Nevada (-0.5 points, to 40.4%); Arizona (+0.5 points, to 27.9%); Illinois (+0.1 points, to 20.7%); Florida (-0.1 points, to 24.7%); North Carolina (-0.1 points, to 19.4%).
Wine recorded the smallest decline in dollar sales in both the total on premise (-0.5%) and on-premise chains (-1.3%). However, the category recorded share declines in 10 of the 15 observed states:
- Nevada (-1.9 points, to 36.9%);
- Colorado (-1.9 points, to 22.4%);
- Pennsylvania (-1.2 points, to 23.2%);
- Oregon (-0.9 points, to 11.6%);
- Ohio (-0.7 points, to 27.7%);
- Tennessee (-0.6 points, to 31.2%);
- Illinois (-0.4 points, to 31.6%);
- Georgia (-0.3 points, to 24.4%);
- North Carolina (-0.3 points, to 15.9%);
- Louisiana (-0.3 points, to 21.2%).
Wine’s share of on-premise chain dollar sales was flat in New York (12.2% share) and increased in Texas (+0.5 points, to 34.1%), Arizona (+0.5 points, to 34%), California (+0.4 points, to 21%) and Florida (+0.3 points, to 21.7%).