Scan data through Q3 showed a “slightly more promising outlook for craft,” according to Bump Williams Consulting (BWC) in the firm’s quarterly craft report.
Craft dollar sales growth in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. xAOC + liquor plus + convenience) is now flat year-to-date (YTD) through September 30. The numbers are an improvement over the “underwhelming” results in BWC’s Q2 report, when craft finished the quarter with dollar sales down -0.3% YTD through July 1.
However, there is “still a lot of work to be done to return to large-scale growth,” BWC wrote. In the last 13 weeks, craft beer dollar sales increased +1% year-over-year (YoY), while in the last four weeks, dollar sales were down -1.8% YoY.
The total beer category recorded a +2% increase in dollar sales YTD. In the last 13 weeks, beer dollar sales were up +2% YoY. In the last four weeks, dollar sales were up +0.1%.
Craft has lost 0.2 share points of total beer dollars YTD, now holding 11.6% share. Meanwhile, imports (+1.6 share points) and flavored malt beverages (+1.4 share points) continue to gain share, with imports’ total share (23.5%) now just 1.3 share points below top shareholder domestic premiums (24.8% share).
Once again, the convenience channel was the only channel where craft recorded an increase in dollar sales (+7.5% YTD), outperforming the overall beer category (+4.4%) in the channel. The segment is also gaining share and space in the channel.
Craft gained +0.2 share points of total beer c-store dollars YTD, now claiming 6.1% share, just below hard seltzer (6.3%), which has lost 0.9 share points YTD. The average number of items at retailers also increased for craft in c-stores (+4.5% YTD), despite overall “beer on the shelf remain[ing] stagnant.”
Craft’s increased space in c-stores is needed as the segment continues to face hurdles in other channels, such as grocery. Craft dollar sales are down -1.6% YTD in grocery, while the segment’s share category dollar sales is down 0.2 share points, to 20.4% share. The average number of craft items is also down (-3.5% YTD) in grocery.
Across all channels, the average number of craft items is down -5.6% YTD, the second largest decline, behind only hard seltzer (-17.4%). Meanwhile, non-alcoholic (NA) beer increased items +22.4% (+30.2% in grocery and +19.3% in c-stores). Flavored malt beverages (+13.1% overall, +14.7% in grocery and +15.1% in c-stores) and imports (+5.4% overall, +8.8% in grocery and +8.8% in c-stores) also continued to record significant gains.
In terms of segment “efficiency” – measured by the average dollar sales per item per store selling – craft was “one of the few segments to showcase an uptick as ongoing adjustments to assortment/strategy are starting to reap some returns,” BWC wrote. Craft increased its average dollars per item +1% YTD, one of five beer segments in the green, along with malt liquor (+3.7%), cider (+2.2%), below premium (+1.3%) and hard seltzer (+0.3%).
Top 25 Craft List Seeing ‘Lots of Volatility’
Just over half of the top 25 craft brand families by dollar sales in NIQ-tracked channels recorded dollar sales growth YTD: Lion Little World Beverages-owned New Belgium (+20%) and Bell’s (+5.8%); Anheuser-Busch InBev-owned Kona (+11.7%), Goose Island (+9.9%) and Wicked Weed (+5.6%); Artisanal Brewing Ventures’ Victory (+1.7%); Tilray-owned 10 Barrel (+7.2%); Sapporo-owned Stone (+4.1%); Sierra Nevada (+4.2%); Athletic Brewing (+83.5%); Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s (+0.9%); Mahou USA-owned Founders (+1.8%); New Glarus (+2.3%); and Georgetown (+12.1%).
However, only 10 of the top 15 also grew volume YTD, measured by case sales: New Belgium (+13.4%), Bell’s (+6.3%), Kona (+11.7%), Athletic (+80.6%), New Glarus (+1.6%), Victory (+0.8%), Wicked Weed (+1.4%), 10 Barrel (+2.9%) and Georgetown (+12.1%).
“We continue to see lots of volatility among the T25 craft leaders,” BWC wrote.
“There is also a notable gap in the average items per store among leaders, an important metric to monitor for any craft supplier angling for space at retail,” BWC continued. “How much space is up for grabs and how productive are you on a per item basis?”
New Belgium had an average of six items per store, behind only New Glarus (6.6 items). Most brand families ranged from 2.3 to 4.7 items per store. A-B’s Golden Road (1.9 items), the 25th largest craft brand family by dollar sales, had the smallest average number of items, along with the steepest volume decline (-20.5% YTD).
New Belgium continues to be the No. 1 growth leader among all craft brands. Other growth leaders beyond the top 25 dollar sales list include Fiddlehead (+33.7%), HOP WTR (+342.5%) and Tilray-owned Montauk (+29.3%).
The top 10 dollar sales loss leaders including: Flying Dog (-20% YTD); Molson Coors-owned Hop Valley (-12.7%) and Terrapin (-20.9%); Boston Beer-owned Dogfish Head (-10.8%) and Samuel Adams (-4.6%); Duvel USA-owned Firestone Walker (-5.8%); Tilray-owned Shock Top (-22.4%); A-B-owned Elysian (-7%); Heineken-owned Lagunitas (-8.8%) and Molson Coors-owned Blue Moon (-8.3%).
Six of the top 25 individual craft brands recorded dollar sales and volume growth YTD, half of which were New Belgium brands:
- No. 2 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollar sales +9.9%, volume +5.3%);
- No. 3 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +7.9%, volume +3.4%);
- No. 5 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +93.5%, volume +92.3%);
- No. 11 Kona Big Wave Golden Ale (dollar sales +32.1%, volume +32.1%);
- No. 14 Bell’s Two Hearted (dollar sales +7.6%, volume +4.1%);
- No. 19 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack (dollar sales +23.1%, volume +18.2%).
Five other New Belgium brands made the top 25 list, despite some double-digit declines, including:
- No. 17 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (no comps, launched in early 2023);
- No. 21 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -13.2%, volume -18.2%);
- No. 24 Fat Tire (dollar sales -14.5%, volume -17.6%);
- No. 25 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -16.1%, volume -20.2%).
Three brands within the top 25 recorded dollar sales gains, but negative volume trends: Monster-owned Cigar City Jai Alai IPA (dollar sales +2.3%, volume -1.4%); Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales +2%, volume -1.9%); and New Glarus Spotted Cow Ale (dollar sales +0.7%, volume -9%).
New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force was the No. 1 new craft brand YTD through Q3, with more than four times the amount of case sales as No. 2, Sierra Nevada’s Hazy Little Thing rotator.
One trend to note: Five of the top 25 new craft brands were variety packs:
- No. 3 Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher variety pack;
- No. 5 Stone Delicious IPA mixed pack;
- No. 11 Golden Road California Classics variety pack;
- No. 12 3 Floyds Variety Pack;
- And No. 24 Mother Earth Cali Combo mixed pack.