Beer Marketer’s Insights’ 50 Years in Beer: Volume Flattens, Suppliers Grow, Brands Shrink

After decades of steady increases, the U.S. beer industry’s volume has plateaued for the last 10 years, Beer Marketer’s Insights senior editor Christopher Shepard reported during the trade publication’s seminar last week.

“In the 1970s, U.S. beer volume grew by almost 50% — 56 million barrels,” he said. “That’s almost two-thirds of the growth between 1970 and 2020, [and it] happened in 10 years right at the beginning.”

Between 1970 and 2020, the industry added 86.4 million barrels, 56 million of that between 1970 and 1980. In 2010, the industry shipped 209.7 million barrels, but by 2020, that number had declined slightly to 209.2 million barrels — “basically flat,” Shepard said.

However, due to consumers’ increasing preference for premium brands and products, dollar sales have continued to climb, even when volume has not.

“Anybody who’s been in the industry for the last 10 years knows that ‘growth’ is maybe not the best word to use to describe volume at the very least,” Shepard said.

In fact, the above premium segment has accounted for 61.3% of beer category dollars year-to-date through October 30 — a 2.5% increase in share over 2020, Beer Marketer’s Insights president Benj Steinman shared during the seminar’s opening remarks.

Since 2010, the beer category’s high-end segments — imports, craft and flavored malt beverages (FMBs) — have increased volume by roughly 50 million barrels and gained more than 23 sharepoints, Shepard said.

Much of the beer industry’s growth in the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to Anheuser-Busch and Miller, particularly the former. A-B “drove growth of the beer category in the ’70s and then just gained goo-gobs of share in the ’80s, to the tune of 85 million barrels of growth between 1970 and 2008,” Shepard said.

By 1981, Miller had sold eight times the volume it sold in 1970. Coors more than tripled its volume between 1970 (7.3 million barrels) and 2007 (24 million barrels).

The collection of regional brands that now belong in the Pabst Brewing Company stable — Pabst, Stroh’s, Heileman’s Old Style, Olympia, Schlitz, Falstaff and Pearl — once accounted for more than 75 million barrels, peaking in the late 1970s.

“Not so much anymore, obviously,” Shepard said.

In 2020, Pabst Brewing shipped 3.65 million barrels, according to the Brewers Association’s May/June edition of the New Brewer.

During the same years when these legacy brands declined in volume, the several companies responsible for importing and selling Corona and Modelo steadily grew the brands’ volume.

“Constellation has grown very strong over the last 10 years but before that, you had Barton and Gambrinus taking the Corona and Modelo brands to about just over 12 million barrels, which has basically doubled since then,” Shepard said.

Although the second half of the last century brought about the rise of several dominant suppliers, brands themselves have faced a reversed fate.

“Importantly, the top 10 brands have lost quite a bit of power,” Shepard said. “Back in ’77, the top 10 brands were over 70% of the industry, and by 2020, they were just over half.”

In 1977, the No. 1 beer brand in the country was A-B’s Budweiser with a 15.9 share, which increased to 16.6 share in 2000, when it was still the top brand. By 2020, however, Budweiser had fallen to the No. 6 brand with a 4.8 share. Last year, Bud Light was the No. 1 brand with a 12.3 share.

“One Bud or another was at the top of this list the whole dang time,” Shepard pointed out.

Only Budweiser and Miller Lite have held places on the lists of the top 10 brands in 1977, 2000 and 2020. Bud Light, Coors Light, Natural Light, Busch Light and Corona Extra were on the list in both 2000 and 2020.

In 1977, the top 10 beer brands produced 112 million barrels, which accounted for 70.2% of the industry’s volume. They included:

Budweiser, 25.4 million barrels, 15.9% share;
Miller High Life, 16.9 million barrels, 10.6% share;
Schlitz and Schlitz Light, 16.1 million barrels, 10.1% share;
Pabst Blue Ribbon, 15.2 million barrels, 9.5% share;
Coors Banquet, 12.8 million barrels, 8% share;
Miller Lite, 6.8 million barrels, 4.3% share;
Michelob, 6.4 million barrels, 4% share;
Schaefer, 4.6 million barrels, 2.9% share;
Old Milwaukee, 4.3 million barrels, 2.7% share;
Busch, 3.3 million barrels, 2.1% share.

By 2000, the list of the top 10 brands had changed considerably. Those brands, which produced 133 million barrels and accounted for 66.1% of the industry’s volume, included:

Budweiser, 33.3 million barrels, 16.6% share;
Bud Light, 31.4 million barrels, 15.6% share;
Miller Lite, 16 million barrels, 8% share;
Coors Light, 15.4 million barrels, 7.7% share;
Natural Light, 8 million barrels, 4% share;
Busch, 7.7 million barrels, 3.9% share;
Corona Extra, 5.3 million barrels, 2.7% share;
Busch Light, 5.27 million barrels, 2.6% share;
Miller High Life, 5.22 million barrels, 2.6% share
Miller Genuine Draft, 5.2 million barrels, 2.6% share.

About half those brands remained in the top 10 two decades later, but their share had declined to 53.5% (111.9 million barrels). Last year, the top 10 beer brands included: