October domestic tax paid shipments from U.S. brewers were down -10.8% versus October 2022, to an estimated 11.35 million barrels, marking a loss of 1.38 million barrels year-over-year (YoY), according to Beer Institute (BI) chief economist Andrew Heritage.
October marked the eighth consecutive month of domestic shipment declines and ninth month in the red this year. Tax paids are now down -6.9% year-to-date (YTD), to more than 128.7 million barrels, marking a loss of nearly 9.6 million barrels versus the first 10 months of 2022.
“Consumer spending has slowed in recent months, and the beer industry has been impacted by a slowing macroeconomic environment,” Heritage wrote in his first round of BI economic reports since joining the trade group in November.
Additionally, September domestic shipments have been adjusted to -11.4% YoY. Shipments were initially estimated to be down -7.4%.
October state shipments declined -7.6% YoY, marking a loss of more than 1.2 million barrels YoY. Forty-five states recorded volume declines YoY, including the largest beer states: Texas (-3.3%), California (-9.9%), Florida (-12.5%), Illinois (-8.1%), New York (-6.7%) and Ohio (-4.8%).
Kansas (+8.3%), Rhode Island (+6.3%), Virginia (+2.1%) and Wyoming (+2.8%) were the only states to record growth YoY. New Mexico was flat.
Shipments are now down -4.3% YTD. Five states are up YTD: Idaho (+1.6%), Indiana (+0.8%), Iowa (+5.9%) and Kansas (+1.9%).
Texas remains the top state for shipments YTD, with 17.856 million barrels shipped (-3.3%), followed by California, with 16.37 million barrels shipped (-8.8%).
October import shipments were up +2.1% YoY, to more than 3.38 million barrels, marking the first increase after two months of declines. Shipments are now down -1.4% YTD.
“As inventory challenges have resolved over the past year, imports have been a bright spot for the beer industry in 2023,” Heritage wrote.
Mexican imports rebounded in October, increasing +2.7% YoY, after a -12.8% decline in September. The dominant beer import segment is now up +1% YTD.
Canadian imports were also up (+24% YoY), and are now up +1.3% YTD.
Non-alcoholic imported beer continued to record gains, with shipments up +20.5% YoY and +23% YTD.