CGA: Seasonal Trends Mirroring 2019
Sales velocity in on-premise retailers increased +37% for the week ending October 2, compared to the same week in 2020, and increased +15% compared to the same week in 2019, according to the market research firm CGA.
Trends over the past few months have mirrored seasonal trends in 2019, suggesting that the country’s on-premise has returned to post-pandemic patterns, according to Matthew Crompton, CGA client solutions director, Americas. However, Crompton emphasized that consumer habits will not return entirely back to “normal.”
“COVID-19 has had a significant impact on consumer behavior,” he said in a press release. “Our research shows that many consumer trends may translate into long-term shifts in visitation and behavior post-COVID-19 — highlighting the importance for suppliers and operators to understand and maximize these opportunities.”
Of the key states CGA tracks, Texas posted the strongest on-premise sales performance for the week ending October 2 compared to the same week in 2019, growing +36%. Week-over-week for the week ending October 2, Texas declined -1%, but reported +7% increase week-over-week compared to the week ending September 25. The growth was driven by increased on-premise sales in key cities such as Dallas (+15%) and Houston (+12%) for the week ending September 25.
New York and California, which enacted some of the most stringent COVID-19 regulations in the U.S., continued to post year-over-year (YOY) growth. New York on-premise sales increased +58% for the week ending October 2 compared to the same week in 2020, and +4% versus the same week in 2019. Additionally, sales velocity grew +2% week-over-week compared to flat growth for the week ending September 25.
Despite negative week-over-week sales (-2%) compared to the week ending September 25, California recorded on-premise sales growth of +50% YOY for the week ending October 2, and grew +28% versus the same week in 2019.
Illinois posted the largest negative trends week-over-week, decreasing -6% for the week ending October 2 compared to the week ending September 25, 2021, which reported a 5% sales increase compared to the previous week. Sales velocity for the week ending October 2 was up +49% YOY, and up +4% compared to the same week in 2019.
Florida recorded flat on-premise trends for the past couple weeks, declining -1% week-over-week for the week ending September 25, and increasing +1% for the week ending October 2. On-premise sales grew +25% for the week ending October 2 compared to the same week in 2020, and +19% versus 2019.
BeerBoard: Volume and Rate of Sale Record Fourth Consecutive Period of Growth
On-premise rate of sale grew for the fourth straight period during the weekend of October 7-10, increasing +6% compared to the weekend of September 23-26, according to BeerBoard, which tracks on-premise sales at bars and restaurants across the U.S.
Eight of the 10 tracked states recorded growth over the weekend compared to late September, led by Texas (+8.8%), South Carolina (+8.7%) and Georgia (+6.7%). Nationally, on-premise rate of sale for the weekend increased +23.6% year-over-year (YOY) compared to the same weekend in 2019.
Additionally, eight of the 10 tracked states reported positive growth year-over-year, led by South Carolina (+154.7%), Georgia (+114.9%), Tennessee (+82.1%) and Florida (+76.5%). Rate of sale in Minnesota (-5.8%) and Nevada (-11.3%) remained below 2019 levels over the weekend, despite two consecutive periods of growth in both states.
Similarly, volume recorded a fourth straight period of growth, increasing +4.7% for the weekend ending October 10, compared to two weekends before. However, volume remained below 2019 levels, decreasing -16% nationally over the weekend compared to the same weekend in 2019.
The average number of taps remained flat, with an average of 20 taps flowing per location nationally, down -50% from the same weekend in 2019. Michigan was the only state to increase its average taps, growing +4.3% over the weekend compared to the prior period, from 23 taps to 24 taps. All other states remained flat, except South Carolina, which decreased its average number of taps -5.6% from 18 taps in the weekend ending September 26, to 17 taps in the weekend ending October 10.
The top five styles for the on-premise remained unchanged over the weekend compared to the previous period, led (in order) by light lager, lagers and IPAs, and rounded out by Belgian wit/white ale, and European ales. Domestic beer continued to lead in volume share, followed by craft and imports. Craft lost 1.6% of its tap share over the weekend compared to the previous period, as domestic beer gained +1.4% of tap share.