NIQ: Beer Dollars +0.7%, Volume -4.1% Through Mid-June

Off-premise beer category dollar sales are up +0.7%, while volume sales have declined -4.1% for the four-week period ending June 17, according to market research firm NIQ.

Both dollar and volume trends were improvements upon the year-to-date (YTD) performance of +0.2% and -4.6%, respectively, the firm reported.

Several segments improved both dollar and volume trends for the last month, compared to YTD trends. Notable improved trends include:

  • Imports (+9.3% dollars L4W vs.+6.9% YTD, +4.5% volume L4W vs. +2.8%);
  • Craft (+1.6% dollars L4W vs. -3.7%, -2% volume L4W vs. -7.4%);
  • FMBs minus hard seltzer (+19.7% dollars L4W vs. +10.4%, +15.7% volume L4W vs. +5.7%);
  • Premium regular (+1.9% dollars L4W vs. -3.2%, -3.3% volume L4W vs. -7.3%);
  • Cider (+6.1% dollars L4W vs. -1.9%, +0.4% volume L4W vs. -7.2%);
  • Below premium (-0.5% dollars L4W vs. -3.2%, -6% volume L4W vs. -8.2%).

Bud Light Double-Digit Declines Continue

The intrigue around Bud Light’s weekly performance and the competition for the top-selling beer spot in the off-premise channel continues, even though the off-premise is only one measurement of overall performance.

The off-premise declines of Anheuser-Busch’s (A-B) Bud Light brand accelerated compared to previous weeks, declining -28.5% in dollar sales and -31.1% in volume (measured in case sales) for the week ending June 17, according to Bump Williams Consulting (BWC), citing NIQ data.

However, BWC noted that “overall performance” for the one-week period “was a bit more muted (or depressed)” compared to the previous week for total beer, with beer category dollars (-1.4%) and volume (-6.2%) both declining. Other A-B brands were also in the red for the week: Michelob Ultra (-4% dollars, -7.2% volume), Busch Light (-8.1% dollars, -13.7% volume), Natural Light (-5.6% dollars, -10.2% volume), and Budweiser (-12.3% dollars, -15.5% volume).

Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial increased both dollar sales (+8.6%) and volume (+4.5%) for the week, per BWC. Molson Coors’ light lagers Miller Lite (+16% dollars, +11.1% volume) and Coors Light (+21.8% dollars, +16.6% volume) posted double-digit dollar and volume growth.

Yuengling Lager also posted double-digit dollar (+25.1%) and volume (+13.3%) gains during the week, the firm reported.

Even as the Bud Light brand struggles on a week-to-week basis, the brand remains the top-selling beer in the off-premise channel YTD:

  • Bud Light holds 8.8% share of beer category dollars YTD and 10.6% volume share of beer;
  • Modelo Especial holds 8% share of beer category dollars YTD, and 6.7% volume share of beer.

Latest four-week dollar sales trends favor Modelo Especial (8.4% to 7.1%,), but Bud Light remains the top beer by volume share (8.6% to 7.1%, respectively).

Also in the last four weeks ending June 17, the dollar share of the premium segment has narrowed:

  • Bud Light 29.2%
  • Coors Light 25.4%
  • Miller Lite 21.4%

Molson Coors has chipped away at Bud Light’s share of the premium segment. On a YTD basis, Bud Light’s lead is wider at 34.6% to Coors Light’s and Miller Lite’s 22% and 19.5%, respectively.

Scanning the Scans

Market research firm Circana offered a one-week scorecard for off-premise scans for the week ending June 18, covering the full Father’s Day weekend.

High level: Total beverage alcohol was up +1.8% compared to a year ago and up +4.5% compared to the prior week in absolute dollars in off-premise channels tracked by Circana. Beer category off-premise dollar sales eked out dollar sales growth (+0.5%) compared to a year ago and week-over-week (+3.7%). Beer dominated total sales ($990.9 million) compared to spirits ($239.7 million) and wine ($259.8 million).

Good weeks: Circana EVP of bev-alc Scott Scanlon shared a few beer category and spirits category standouts, with his own commentary, including:

  • Modelo posted +21% comps and is “the growth leader and new overall category king;”
  • Yuengling recorded +390% growth and “continues outperformance surge;
  • Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked was up +49% and “continues top 27 with continued growth likely;”
  • Tito’s Vodka generated +9% growth and has a “firm category hold” over spirits;
  • High Noon Sun Sips increased sales +43% and “does not appear to be releasing spirits second place anytime soon;”
  • BeatBox is in the spirits top 35 with +135% comps.

RTD overview: Total ready-to-drink (RTD) offerings increased dollar sales +0.4% compared to a year ago and +3% week-over-week (WoW), the firm reported.

Total seltzer (beer-, wine- and spirits-based) declined -12.8% compared to last year, but increased dollar sales +2.4% WoW. Spirits-based seltzers were the only subsegment to post positive year-over-year (+66%) and WoW (+5%) sales gains.

Although beer category seltzers declined -20% in sales compared to last year, they did increase sales +1.9% WoW. Wine-based seltzers declined both compared to a year ago (-53.9%) and WoW (-3.5%).