The number of legal drinking age adults who have visited on-premise establishments has remained stagnant at around 50% for several months, according to a report from Nielsen CGA, the on-premise arm of market research firm NielsenIQ.
“It is positive over half of on-premise consumers have returned; however, [it] still highlights the challenge in assuring other consumers that it is safe,” Nielsen CGA wrote.
In the two weeks leading up to the January 8-10 survey period, 50% of respondents said they had gone out for a meal, which was the same number as those who had been out to a restaurant in the two weeks prior.
Drinking occasions remain less popular — 17% of respondents had gone out for a drink in the two weeks before the January 8-10 survey, an increase of 1% from the previous survey. Only 41% of respondents said they planned to visit a restaurant in the two weeks following the survey, but 18% said they would go out for a drink.
Since on-premise venues began reopening in early summer 2020, Nielsen CGA has surveyed consumers in New York, Florida, Texas and California about their dining out habits. These four states have had varying operating restrictions for bars and restaurants, which Nielsen CGA called “a much bigger influencer” in consumers’ activity.
In Florida, where bars and restaurants are allowed to open with no limitations, 61% of survey respondents had gone out for a meal. But in California, where on-site dining is shut down for most of the state, only 36% of survey respondents had returned to on-premise outlets. Slightly less than half of New Yorkers, 47%, had been out for a meal, and 60% of Texans had dined out.
When data was cut by age, respondents had dined out at similar rates: 48% of the youngest segment (21-34), 52% of the middle age group (35-54) and 50% of the oldest group (55+).
State regulations appear to have little effect on consumers’ willingness to go out just for drinks, as the rate of that activity does not vary much from state to state:
- New York — 17%
- California — 16%
- Florida — 19%
- Texas — 16%.
Younger consumers visit on-premise establishments for drinking occasions at much higher rates than older respondents. In the most recent survey period, 28% of respondents ages 21-34 had gone out for drinks, compared to 20% of those aged 35-54 and 7% of respondents age 55 and older.
The types of on-premise establishments consumers have returned to have remained relatively steady for the past three months. In the most recent survey period, Nielsen CGA found that 41% of respondents had visited casual dining chains, followed by independent restaurants (36%), sports bars (19%), neighborhood bars (18%) and fine dining restaurants (18%).
Independent restaurants’ attendance declined 7% from their three-month average of 43%; neighborhood bars’ attendance declined 3% from their three-month average of 21%.
Asked what venues they have missed visiting most since the pandemic began, consumers appear to be pining for meals at casual dining restaurants (44%), local and neighborhood restaurants (40%) and fine dining restaurants (28%).
Respondents also missed travel and experience-driven venues:
- Cinemas — 35%
- Festivals — 27%
- Airlines — 24%
- Hotels — 23%
- Casinos — 20%
- Music and comedy arenas — 19%
- Sports stadiums — 19%
- Holiday resorts — 16%.
Drinking-centric venues ranked near the bottom of the list of most missed places: neighborhood bars (17%), sports bars (16%) and brewpubs/taprooms (13%). Occupying the last position on a list of venues consumers miss seems disheartening, but the beer industry shouldn’t fret, Nielsen CGA client solutions director Matthew Crompton told Brewbound.
“Our sample is representative, so it even includes some people who don’t drink alcohol at all,” he said, adding that if the survey targeted beer drinkers specifically, “the numbers would look different.”
Nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) had ordered takeout or delivery in the two weeks before the survey; the same number planned to in the next two weeks. And 65% had ordered takeout or delivery in the prior two-week period. Just 12% had ordered alcohol with their to-go orders, and 15% said they planned to add alcohol to orders in the next two weeks.
Takeout and delivery orders remain very popular, with 71% of respondents who placed orders having done so between two and five times in the two weeks before the survey; 8% of respondents ordered six or more times. Just 21% had only ordered once.
BeerBoard: Draft Retailers Open Rate Increases 5%
BeerBoard, which tracks draft sales at on-premise retailers across the country, reported that 85% of draft accounts were open and pouring during the January 14-17 weekend, reaching its highest point since before Thanksgiving and marking an increase of 5% from the prior survey period of December 31-January 3.
Nationwide, draft volume’s 30-day rate of sale increased 14.3% over the previous period. Four states outpaced the national rate of sale increase:
- Michigan — 29.8%
- Illinois — 28.3%
- Florida — 24.4%
- Texas 17.9%.
Other states saw growth, but lagged behind the national rate:
- Tennessee — 7.3%
- Georgia — 2.7%
- Nevada — 2.6%
- South Carolina — 0.3%.
The only markets to see a decline in 30-day rate of sale were Minnesota (-26.3%) and New York (-4%).
At the beginning of last week, Minnesota, Gov. Tim Walz lifted a ban on indoor dining that had been in place since November. Capacity at bars and restaurants is limited to 50% with a 10 p.m. curfew.
The Minnesota Department of Revenue issued $67.3 million in COVID-19 business relief payments to qualifying businesses, including bars and restaurants, gyms, bowling alleys and other establishments that were forced to close.
NBWA Beer Purchasers’ Index: At-Risk Beer Inventory Low, FMB and Hard Seltzer Purchase Intent Still High
Wholesaler beer purchasing last month remained slightly elevated compared to December 2019, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI), a monthly survey of its members’ ordering habits.
“The December 2020 Beer Purchaser’s Index (BPI) moderated significantly compared to prior months in 2020,” NBWA wrote. “After remaining elevated throughout the summer, the December 2020 BPI at 64 is only a few points above December 2019 at 61.”
A reading of 50 or higher indicates that the industry or its segments are expanding, while a reading of less than 50 indicates contraction.
The only segment with a lower reading in December 2020 was craft, which contracted with a reading of 44, “breaking a four-month streat of above-50 readings in 2020,” the NBWA wrote. Craft’s reading was 50 in December 2019.
Below premiums also contracted with a reading of 42, which is much higher than the segment’s December 2019 reading of 28. The segment peaked in May 2020 with a reading of 70 and has since been in “rapid decline,” the NBWA wrote.
Ciders contracted with a reading of 39, an increase of five points over the segment’s December 2019 reading.
At 80, the FMB and hard seltzer segment had the highest reading of the month, a nine-point increase over its December 2019 reading. December 2020 marked the FMB segment’s lowest reading of the year though.
Imports had the second highest reading of the month at 61, an increase of six points over the segment’s December 2019 reading.
Premium lights had the second highest reading of the month at 60, and the second-largest largest increase of any segment over its December 2019 reading of 32.
With a December 2020 reading of 50, premium regulars saw the largest increase over December 2019’s reading of 18.
The “at-risk inventory” measure — inventory of beer reaching its out-of-code date — contracted with a reading of 29.
“Overall, the slightly lower demand from beer purchases is expected heading into the new year,” the NBWA wrote. “However, with low inventories, there is still a need to replenish stock.”
