Craft beer has entered “no to negative growth territory,” Brewers Association (BA) chief economist Bart Watson said during a year-end webinar last week.
The BA also published its Year in Beer review last week, in which Watson reported BA-defined independent craft brewers will record negative volume growth in 2023 for the first time in craft’s modern era outside of 2020.
“We were in double-digit growth as recently as 2014, 2015, and then we moved into kind of a more developed, slow, single-digit growth rate,” Watson said. “COVID hit, and we had the worst year in craft history in 2020 with a partial bounce back in 2021.
“But what we’ve seen in 2022 and then 2023 is the new normal is one where, at least in volume sales – and this is volume percentage growth, not dollars, dollars would be positive – that craft has moved into a no to negative growth territory,” he continued.
A few factors contribute to craft’s losses, none of which have easy fixes. The first is that consumer demand for craft beer has stalled, which Watson deemed “the biggest reason we’ve moved from double-digit to slow, no, negative growth.”
“Overall demand growth just isn’t growing anymore,” Watson said. “We’re not seeing the number of customers coming in increasing the size of the pie for craft brewers.”
In the BA’s annual consumer survey conducted by Harris Poll, an equal number of respondents said they were drinking more and less craft beer. The number of drinkers consuming more craft beer has steadily declined since its high of nearly 45% in 2015, while the number of those drinking less has increased from its 2015 low of about 10%. In 2023, both numbers converged around 25%.
“The No. 1 reason that people tell us they drink less craft is not because they’re watching their wallet or watching their waist or they’re worried about health and wellness,” Watson said. “The No. 1 reason is that they’re drinking more of something else that has alcohol in it. And one of my kind of constant themes to brewers this year is to understand, accept and think about this in terms of the competitive landscape of overall beverage alcohol.”
Distribution Challenges
In recent years, other bev-alc categories have begun to replicate the “variety and flavor” drinkers were flocking to craft for with offerings such as ready-to-drink canned cocktails and other flavor-forward, wine- and spirits-based drinks. These product trends combined with the death of independent on-premise retailers, where craft has historically done well, in favor of fast casual chains and distributors’ disinterest in the segment to create a “perfect storm,” Watson said.
“Craft was slowing; there’s new alternatives entering the marketplace,” he said. “In general, there was pressure on both distributors and retailers to simplify their offerings, and I think both had seen a little bit too much complexity. And this created this perfect storm where craft was going to be a loser if distributors are going to add some of these new products.”
Craft has been in contraction in the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) every month since February 2022, meaning that middle-tier buyers report buying less of it.
However, the post-pandemic consumer behavior patterns are beginning to “stabilize” and craft beer is starting to hold its places better than it has,” Watson said. This, combined with flattish off-premise scan data (craft dollar sales declined -0.9% year-to-date through December 3, according to market research firm Circana), moved Watson to predict distributed craft beer could see positive growth at some point in 2024.
Although distributed packaged craft beer may be beginning to see green shoots, draft beer sales could reach “their lowest level since World War II,” Watson said. Distributed draft dried up during the pandemic’s bar and restaurant closures and has yet to recover. Furthermore, Watson noted there is “zero reason to expect growth in 2024.”
Right now, many craft brewers say the decline of distributed draft does not affect them, because at-the-brewery sales, which are primarily draft, are a rare bright spot for the industry. But Watson attempted “to put a little bit more sense of urgency into people’s brains.”
“I worry we’re going to reach a critical point where Americans have stopped learning how to drink draft beer,” he said. “Draft is not part of their equation, and then that might catch up with breweries as well.”
At-the-Brewery Sales
The at-the-brewery channel remains steady and visitors have increased, according to the BA’s Harris Poll. Of survey respondents who drink craft a few times a year, 69% said they had visited a brewery in the past year, a +3% increase from 2022.
“This is one of the most positive things out there,” Watson said. “It’s one reason that we continue to see breweries enter the marketplace, that we see a low failure rate and breweries in general have been able to be successful.”
Still, in keeping with the webinar’s overall theme, the own-premise channel has “a few more challenges emerging,” Watson said. Check levels are steady, but when adjusted for inflation, sales have declined year-over-year compared to 2021 when the on-premise reopened.
“The pattern we’re seeing this year is probably going to also hold next year,” he said. “We’re likely not going to see per-brewery or same-store sales growth in these at-the-brewery sales, at least in terms of volume. We might see dollar sales growth, again, driven by price increases.”
Watson predicted own-premise beer sales will be “roughly steady” next year, which he admitted “is a change” for the industry.
“This has been the growth engine of craft even at a time where distribution was struggling and makes it even more important to get back to distribution growth,” he said.
Brewery Openings and Closings
So far in 2023, brewery openings and closings are closer than they’ve been in recent years, with at least 385 closing and at least 420 opening – which is “a far cry” from the 1,200+ breweries that opened in 2019, according to BA data.
Nearly 440 breweries closed in 2020, and 2023 could exceed that once final data is tallied, Watson told Brewbound through a BA spokesperson. Although the number of openings and closings are inching closer together, closings have yet to exceed openings in craft’s current iteration. The “high point” for that was the early 2000s, Watson said.
Despite the “doom and gloom” in news reports about brewery closings, Watson pointed out that closings are higher in more mature craft markets, such as Colorado and parts of California, and this amount of churn is normal in the hospitality industry.
“No one’s worried about the leisure and hospitality industry broadly going away, so you can have closings and have a vibrant, healthy industry,” he said. “And I think that’s kind of the place that brewing is going.”
Craft Styles
IPA remains craft’s dominant style, with imperial IPA, New England/hazy IPA, IPA mix packs, and American IPA as the industry’s largest share gainers in 2023. American, imperial and hazy are the No. 1, 3 and 4 largest styles; seasonal releases are No. 2, but lost more than half a point of share this year.
Other styles gaining share in 2023 include American lager, American light lager, wheat ale and pilsner – all typically more sessionable than IPAs.
“Growth at both ends of the ABV spectrum – a lot of opportunity if you’re going high in flavor and ABV or lower in ABV,” Watson said.
Supply Chain
The supply chain woes of recent years – availability of aluminum cans, soaring price inputs – have begun to abate.
The average producer price index (PPI) for beer’s largest inputs – malts, carbon dioxide, trucking, cardboard, paperboard and aluminum cans – has remained mostly steady after a steep increase in the second half of 2021, according to data Watson cited from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Much of the increases were driven by the complicated logistics of the immediate post-COVID period. However, beer’s agricultural ingredients are affected by climate, which can be difficult to predict. Still, Watson forecasted “downward pressure on all those prices.”
“It’s gonna vary by product – there’s always other risks out there – but hopefully you’re gonna see that total basket average come down a little bit,” he said.
For more from Watson, watch his presentation with NBWA chief economist Lester Jones about the 23 data points that defined 2023 during the Brewbound Live business conference earlier this month.