After a seven-month slowdown, beer inflation “has reemerged in the past three months,” Brewers Association (BA) chief economist Bart Watson wrote on Twitter/X, following the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The CPI for beer at home increased +4.7% year-over-year (YoY) and +1% versus September, seasonally unadjusted. Over the last three months, the CPI for beer at home has collectively increased +2.1%, seasonally adjusted, equivalent to +8.7% on an annual basis, Watson wrote.
The CPI for beer away from home is up +5.2% YoY (unadjusted), and +0.2% month-over-month (MoM). Over the last three months, the CPI has increased +2%, seasonally adjusted, versus July.
Comparing the CPI to scan data, there is a “pretty big difference between Circana data and CPI,” Watson noted on Twitter/X. The price of beer in scans is up +2% YoY, and is down versus three months ago, according to Watson.
“These two measures have mostly lined up in recent history, so will be interesting to see what happens going forward,” Watson wrote. “My guess is CPI comes down toward scan in the coming months (often see CPI lag scan; 1 month lag better fit).”
The October CPI for total bev-alc increased +3.7 YoY and +0.3% MoM, unadjusted. Bev-alc at home increased +2.7% YoY and +0.3% MoM, while bev-alc away from home increased +5.3% YoY and +0.2% MoM.
Wine and spirits away from home continue to outpace beer. Wine away from home increased +5.3% YoY, but declined -0.1% MoM. Spirits away from home increased +7% YoY and +0.3% MoM.
At home, beer continues to outpace other bev-alc categories. Wine at home increased +1.1% YoY and was flat MoM. Spirits at home increased +2.1% and was down -0.4% MoM.
The CPI for all items was up +3.2% YoY and flat MoM. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for all items over the last three months is up +1% versus July.