The on-premise channel is expected to see a welcome boost this coming week due to Independence Day, according to on-premise market research firm CGA, a NIQ company.
This year, Independence Day falls on a Tuesday, not guaranteeing a three-day weekend for everyone. However, CGA still expects bars and restaurants to see an uplift in sales velocity from the holiday based on last year’s trends.
In 2022, on-premise retailers recorded a +17% increase in sales velocity on July 4 – falling on a Monday – versus a typical Monday in 2022, driven by increased traffic.
Drink-led outlets recorded a +31% increase in velocity on the holiday compared to an average Monday in 2022, while food-led outlets recorded a +16% increase. Independent on-premise outlets received the largest boost for the day, increasing sales velocity +44% versus an average Monday.
In the weeks leading up to the July 4 holiday (weeks ending June 10 and June 17, 2023), on-premise sales velocity has been on the rise, increasing +2% week-over-week (WoW) both weeks. The latest week was partially driven by a +1% WoW increase in both ticket count and check value.
In the latest week (ending June 17), on-premise sales velocity also increased +4% versus the same week in 2022, driven by a +4% year-over-year (YoY) increase in check value, while ticket count remained flat. The growth is a welcome change for the channel, as sales velocity for the last 12 weeks (ending June 17) is still down -6% versus the same period in 2022.
Four of the five key states tracked by CGA increased sales velocity both YoY and WoW in the latest week, led by New York (+8% YoY, +7% WoW). Illinois, the only observed state to record declines, decreased sales velocity -2% YoY and -4% WoW.