The demand for craft beer isn’t growing anymore, and craft has officially become a mature – not maturing – market, Brewers Association (BA) chief economist Bart Watson told industry members Monday at the Massachusetts Brewers Guild’s Technical Brewing and Business Conference, held at Jack’s Abby in Framingham, Massachusetts.
Watson likened the change in the marketplace to playing darts. During craft beer’s peak, when craft brewery openings significantly outpaced closings, if you threw a dart – whether that dart was a new brewery location or product innovation – “you probably hit a bullseye,” Watson said.
Now, with a mature market, brewers have to “be focused” and “really know what you’re doing” to find the target, i.e. success.
“Demand just isn’t growing anymore,” Watson said. “Craft used to be growing by leaps and bounds and there was a world where we can grow 18% of an industry, [and] that was enough growth for everybody, the pie was just growing much faster. Today, that’s not true anymore.”
Now, brewers must continue to accept smaller and smaller pieces of a collective pie. Or, the industry must work together to grow that pie with new occasions and innovation, Watson said.
Nationally, craft production is down -2% through the first half of 2023, marking the first national decline for craft outside of 2020 when the pandemic upended the industry. At the end of the year, it “will be close if we actually see brewery growth or not,” Watson said.
In the last 13 weeks, ending August 13, craft dollar sales increased +0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels, according to Watson, citing data from 3 Tier Beverage’s BA member dashboard. However, volume – measured by case sales – was down -3.1% in the period, and dollar sales were flat in the last four weeks, suggesting any signs of improving trends were only temporary.
For small and mid-sized craft, dollar sales declined -0.5% and volume -4% in the 13-week period In the last four weeks, small craft dollar sales declined -1.4%. Total distribution was also down for the craft group in the last 13 weeks, with distribution points down -1.5% YoY.
Declines are even starker in Massachusetts. Total craft in the state recorded a -9.2% decline in dollar sales and -12.2% decline in volume in the last 13 weeks. Total craft distribution points also declined -6.8% in the period. For small and mid-sized craft, dollar sales declined -10% and volume -13.4% in the 13-week period, while distribution points were down -8.4%.
Additionally, there is a “pretty clear decline” in new brewery permits this year. Nationally, nearly all of the brewery declines are from a decline in openings, rather than an increase in closings, Watson said.
“We’re at a place where we’re starting to see the number of breweries be more or less static,” Watson said.
However, “this is not a bubble bursting,” Watson said. Craft has “moved out of the golden age” and is instead following the patterns of a “normal market.”
Watson named three areas that craft is facing the most challenges: pricing, demographics and increased competition.
Pricing
Controlling for inflation, beer costs “basically the same amount as it did 20-30 years ago,” Watson said. As inflation has steepened, beer prices have also increased, but in relatively the same line.
However, wine and spirits “have gotten much much cheaper relative to inflation” and some consumers are moving away from beer to more affordable wine and spirits brands. While this trend typically affects lower-priced domestic beer brands more than craft, “at some point, the infrastructure becomes challenging for us all,” Watson said.
Craft is taking less price than the overall beer category this year, up an average of about +3.5% year-over-year versus about +5% for the total category, according to Watson, citing Circana data.
The difference in price between craft and overall beer is also declining, with craft brands now costing about 1.45 times more versus the total beer category average. That price gap was previously more than 1.6 times more in 2020. While this could invite more consumers to the segment, the gap shrinking “is a worry, because price is a reflection of our brand strength,” Watson said.
“The collective brand strength of craft has clearly been weakening over time along with the declining sales trends,” he said.
Demographics
As Watson has pointed out several times in the past few years, the national legal-drinking-age (LDA) population is getting older, and “people generally drink a little bit less beer as they get older,” Watson said. If trends continue, the number of people 65+ years old will surpass the number of 21- to 34-year-olds in the country around 2025.
Massachusetts is a state where an aging population is “going to happen even more rapidly,” Watson added. The Bay State’s 21- to 64-year-old population is getting smaller and is expected to continue to decrease over the next decade, while the commonwealth’s 65+ population will continue to increase.
Additionally, the younger generation of LDA consumers is drinking differently than previous generations, with the average bev-alc spend of under 25-year-olds down in 2016-2022, versus the same age demographic in 2011 to 2015, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics Expenditure Survey.
The changing demographics will provide short-term tailwinds for craft, as millennials – the segment’s core generation – moves into an older age demographic that typically spends more on bev-alc. However, there will be headwinds in the future, Watson said.
Competition
In 2000, beer accounted for more than 56% share of total bev-alc sales, while hard liquor accounted for just under 30%. The gap has been shrinking over the past two decades, and as of 2021, beer accounted for 45.6% of sales, while spirits accounted for 38.4%.
Craft beer consumers are also drinking more products across categories. More than 90% of weekly craft drinkers also drink other bev-alc categories during the week, making the consumer group one of the most omnibibulous groups within bev-alc, and creating the most competition for craft, Watson said, citing the BA’s annual Harris Poll.
While consumers’ habits are challenging craft, “there is an opportunity here as well,” Watson said.
“We’ve got a customer base and, increasingly, a total beverage alcohol drinker base that likes great flavor and variety and wants to try different stuff,” Watson said. “That sounds exactly like the kind of thing that craft can excel at.”