Middle-tier beer ordering continued to “shift towards a more predictable environment” in March, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) monthly Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI).
The overall beer category is in equilibrium with a BPI reading of 50, down -2 points from a reading of 52 in March 2022. “At-risk inventory” (ARI), beer in distributors’ warehouses that is in danger of going out of code in the next 30 days, recorded a reading of 51. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion, while one less than 50 indicates contraction.
“While the March BPI/ARI ratio of 50/51 represents a slight regression from February’s 54/46, a fully neutral (50/50) ratio can indicate more predictable ordering and inventory levels,” NBWA chief economist and VP of analytics Lester Jones wrote. “Following several tumultuous and unpredictable years, a stable and balanced environment is welcome news for the beer industry.”
Only two segments expanded in March: imports (62) and below premiums (53), a repeat of February 2023’s readings for both. For imports, this marks a decline from March 2022 (67), but below premiums have increased +12 points from the same month last year.
Premium lights posted the third-highest reading at 47, but remain in contraction, a -4 point decline from 51 in March 2022.
At 37, premium regulars remained in contraction and declined -1 point from March 2022.
Cider, which had the lowest reading (30) last month, had a reading of 31, a -5 point decline from March 2022.
Craft recorded the second-steepest decline, dropping -19 points from March 2022 to a reading of 28 in March 2023.
Only flavored malt beverages (FMBs) and hard seltzers contracted more, with a decline of -21 points, to a reading of 21, the category’s lowest this month.
