Bump Williams: Craft Pricing +4.6% YTD; New Belgium Only Top 15 Craft Vendor in Growth; Victory Most Expensive Avg. Case Price

The average price per case of craft beer is up +4.6% year-to-date and “continues creeping into the $40+ per case range,” according to Bump Williams Consulting, citing NielsenIQ data through October 1. The average price paid per unit is up +2% compared to a year ago, the firm added.

The price increases were recorded in a 30-page report by BWC. Details on craft’s struggle in retail were reported yesterday.

The $40-$49.99 price tier of “premium craft” (Voodoo Ranger family, Goose Island Beer Hug family, and Athletic Brewing family, etc.) has seen the slowest sales declines (-1.4%), according to NielsenIQ data shared by BWC. Premium craft holds 37% share of total craft dollars, the second highest share, with around 5,000 brands.

Meanwhile, the $30-$39.99 price craft tier (Sierra Little Things variety pack, Blue Moon Light Sky and Moon Haze, Lagunitas IPA mix pack, etc.) is down -6.7%. This tier makes up the largest percentage share of total craft dollars (45%), and encapsulates 3,000 brands.

Super premium craft (Victory Berry Monkey, Odell Hazer Tag, Boneyard, etc.) of $50-$59.99 declined -6.4%, but makes up just 6% share of craft dollars and includes about 2,200 brands.

Apex craft (Bell’s Hopslam IPA, specialty stouts by Goose and Founders, local IPAs), covering brands from $60 to above $100, declined across the range of price tiers.

Just two of the top 25 craft families declined in average equivalent price, with Stone Brewing going down $1.90 to $42.31 per case, and Wicked Weed dropping $0.45 to $45.40.

The largest price increase per case goes to Goose Island, which is up $5.09 to $35.23, followed by Cigar City (+$3.39 to $44.50), New Belgium (+$2.48 to $41.16), and Victory (+2.37 to $48.65). Victory’s price increase put its average case price as the most among the top 25 craft brand families, usurping Dogfish Head ($46.99, +$1.77).

New Belgium +19%, Only Top 15 Craft Vendor to Increase Sales

Just one of the top 15 craft vendors – New Belgium (+19.1%) – increased dollar sales in 2022 compared to the first three quarters of 2021. The other 14 were all in decline:

Molson Coors -6.1%
Anheuser-Busch InBev -4.4%
Sierra Nevada -0.8%
Boston Beer -7.9%
Heineken -9%
Craft Brew Alliance (now owned by A-B) -7.5%
Gambrinus (Shiner) -7.7%
Duvel Moortgat -6.3%
Canal Street Brewing (Founders, Avery) -12.3%
Bell’s Brewery -10.5%
CANarchy -7.9%
Artisanal Brewing Ventures -4.2%
Stone Brewing -3%
Deschutes -9.3%

Just five of the top 25 craft families were in the black: New Belgium (+19.1%, $317.682 million in sales), Goose Island (+10.3%, $61.034 million), Victory (+5.2%, $33.248 million), Athletic (+109.6%, $32.225 million) and Wicked Weed (+18.9%, $28.608 million). The rest were trending in the red:

Blue Moon (Molson Coors) -2.3%, $292.65 million in sales;
Sierra Nevada -0.9%, $255.316 million;
Samuel Adams (Boston Beer) -5.8%, $187.36 million;
Lagunitas (Heineken) -9%, $150.695 million;
Leinenkugel’s (Molson Coors) -5.8%, $106.26 million;
Shiner (Gambrinus) -8.1%, $96.525 million;
Firestone Walker (Duvel) -5.5%, $93.513 million;
Founders (Canal Street) -12.4%, $93.408 million;
Elysian (A-B) -7.1%, $83.604 million;
Bell’s (Lion) -10.9%, $80.307 million;
Kona (CBA/A-B) -6%, $69.864 million;
Stone (Sapporo) -1.4%, $58.807 million;
Deschutes -9.7%, $52.595 million;
Cigar City (CANarchy/Monster) -2.7%, $45.586 million;
Dogfish Head (Boston Beer) -15.9%, $43.88 million;
New Glarus -0.9%, $43.487 million;
SweetWater (Tilray) -2.9%, $41.554 million;
Golden Road (A-B) -3.1%, $31.776 million;
Hop Valley (Molson Coors) -15.7%, $31.723 million;
Karbach (A-B) -10.7%, $29.686 million.

Of craft’s growth leaders, New Belgium has increased sales $50.9 million, while Athletic sales are up nearly $16.85 million. A-B’s Goose Island is up more than $5.7 million and Wicked Weed nearly $4.6 million.

Other growth brands include Fiddlehead, with sales up nearly $4.8 million ($11.55 million), Deschutes-owned Boneyard up more than $3 million ($7.9 million), Victory up $1.63 million ($33.248 million), Firestone Walker-owned Cali Squeeze up $1.446 million ($2.819 million) and Bellingham, Washington-based Kulshan up $1.4 million ($4.686 million). Troy Aikman’s Eight lager brand, which is only sold in Texas, has posted nearly $1.6 million in sales after launching this year.

Craft families shedding the most in sales in 2022 include A-B’s Shock Top (-$5.91 million), Elysian (-$6.357 million), Leinekugel’s (-$6.5 million), Blue Moon (-$6.75 million), Dogfish Head (-$8.272 million), Shiner (-$8.505 million), Bell’s (-$9.831 million), Samuel Adams (-$11.479 million), Founders (-$13.239 million) and Lagunitas (-$14.972 million).

New Belgium also holds three of the five top 25 craft brands to post dollar sales gains, including Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, the best-selling IPA in off-premise channels, and Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, the only new craft brand to crack the top 25 and the best-selling craft beer brand launch of all time:

Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (+19.2%, $108.786 million in sales);
Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (+14.2%, $31.628 million);
Voodoo Ranger Hoppy variety pack (+21.6%, $25.086 million);
Voodoo Ranger Juice Force ($42.861 million).

Other top 25 craft brands growing are Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA (+2.4%, $83.483 million) and Kona Big Wave Golden Ale (+2.4%, $40.296 million).

The top 25 craft growth brands are dominated by 10 companies and 18 IPAs of various styles. Lion Little World Beverages’ New Belgium and Bell’s hold five spots: Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, Voodoo Ranger Hoppy variety pack, Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze and Hopslam IPA.

A-B also rivals Lion with five: Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH IPA, Goose Island IPA variety pack, Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, Goose Island Hazy Hug IPA and Goose Island Tropical Hug IPA.

Sierra Nevada possesses four growth brands: Little Things variety pack, Big Little Thing IPA, Sunny Little Thing citrus wheat ale and Atomic Torpedo IPA.

Molson Coors (Blue Moon Light Sky Tropical, Blue Moon Moon Haze Pale Ale, Leinenkugel’s Juicy Peach) and Athletic Brewing (Run Wild IPA, Upside Dawn Ale, Free Wave Hazy IPA) each have three craft growth brands.

Boston Beer’s Just the Haze non-alcoholic IPA and Wicked IPA variety pack made the growth brand list, along with Fiddlehead (IPA), Victory Brewing (Berry Monkey Fruited Sour Tripel) and Lagunitas (variety pack).

Zeroing in on the non-alcoholic beer segment, all but five brands are posting year-over-year growth. Eight of the top 10 are growing double- or triple-digits, while a ninth (Athletic Lite) was released this year.