Domestic tax paid shipments for July were down -8.4% versus July 2022, to 12.8 million barrels, according to the Beer Institute (BI) in its latest round of economic reports.
July marks the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) shipment declines. However, declines have slightly decelerated over the past two months, after peaking in May with a -12.2% YoY decline.
Year-to-date (YTD), domestic tax paids are down -6.8%, or more than 6.4 million barrels. The accelerated YTD decline versus June reports (then -5.9%) is due to the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) adjusting shipment numbers for June, from -6.4% YoY to -9.7%.
Monthly and YTD numbers may change through early 2024 as the BI and TTB update shipment estimates.
State Shipments -4.1% in July Led by Large State Declines
State shipments were down -4.1.% YoY in July, to 17.2 million barrels. Shipments YTD are now down -3% YoY, to 113.8 million barrels – an improvement over the -3.8% decline recorded through June.
In a bit of deja vu from last month, several large beer states recorded significant YoY declines in July. Five states contributed 51% of the overall declines in July:
- California (-7% YoY)
- Texas (-4.3%)
- North Carolina (-13.5%)
- Florida (-5%)
- Pennsylvania (-7.4%)
The two largest states by beer shipments – Texas and California – are also heavy contributors to YTD declines. Combined, YTD shipment losses for both states accounted for a loss of nearly 1.5 million barrels versus the same seven-month period in 2022: California -8.1%, Texas -3.7%.
California alone lost 1 million barrels in the period, partially due to “hard weather conditions this summer,” BI VP of research Danelle Kosmal wrote. As previously reported, Texas passed California earlier this year to claim the No. 1 state for beer shipments.
Six states have increased beer shipments YoY through the first seven months of 2023:
- Idaho (+0.5%, to 633,155 barrels YTD);
- Indiana (+3.5%, to nearly 2.6 million barrels);
- Iowa (+6.7%, to nearly 1.35 million barrels);
- Kansas (+1.5%, to more than 1.06 million barrels);
- Utah (+0.8%, to 696,607 barrels);
- And Washington (+6.7%, to more than 2.5 million barrels).
For the month of July, Maryland (+9.6%), Louisiana (+6.9%) and Washington (+3.3%) were among the top growth contributors.
July Imports +8.5% YoY, led by Mexican Imports
Imported beer continues to be a bright spot for beer, increasing +8.5% YoY in July to 3.9 million barrels, Kosmal reported.
Imported beer is up +0.6% YTD versus a year ago, to more than 24 million barrels.
“As expected,” Mexican imports drove growth for imports, increasing +13.5% YoY in July and +3.6% YoY in the seven-month period.
“For the month of July, Mexican imported beer accounted for 83% of total imported shipments – up 3.6 share points from July 2022,” Kosmal wrote.
Imports for other large beer countries were down in the month:
- Netherlands -15.1%;
- Canada -8.3%;
- Ireland -2.4%;
- Germany -27.3%.
One exception was Italy, which increased shipments +17.3% YoY.
Non-alcoholic imports also continued to grow, increasing +20.2% YoY in July and +23.1% YoY in the seven-month period.