An estimated 15.9 million barrels of beer and malt products were shipped to wholesalers in April, a -4.5% decline (or -741,163 barrels of beer) versus April 2022, Beer Institute (BI) VP of research Danelle Kosmal reported in the trade group’s monthly economic report.
An estimated 60.7 million barrels have been shipped to wholesalers year-to-date (YTD), down -1.8% versus the same period in 2022 (January through April). Shipments have declined three of the four recorded months this year, with the exception of February, when shipments increased +3.2% year-over-year (YoY).
The average shipments over a 12-month period since December 2018 round out to about 202.8 million barrels, with April 2023 recording the lowest level of shipments in that timespan. While that decline is at first alarming, Kosmal emphasized that “category trends are cyclical,” and that shipment dips in the past few years have generally been followed by strong bounce backs.
“We have experienced slowdowns in the past – this hasn’t been the first, and it won’t be the last,” Kosmal wrote. “I don’t think we’ve reached the bottom of this slowdown, but I am optimistic that by mid-summer, we’ll begin to see the start of a turnaround.”
Despite national trends, volume shipments were strong in several states, led by Washington (+12.5% YoY). Other states with significant increases include New Mexico (+7.8%), Vermont (+3.8%), Oklahoma (+3.7%), Kansas (+3.7%), Kentucky (+3.5%), Alaska (+2.8%), Montana (+2%) and Arkansas (+1.7%).
Domestic tax paid shipments also declined in April versus April 2022 (-4% YoY), according to Kosmal, citing numbers from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
U.S. brewers shipped an estimated 13 million barrels of beer in April, down more than 500,000 barrels from the year before. An estimated 49,563,792 barrels have been shipped YTD through April, a -3.5% decline versus 2022 (or -1.8 million barrels).
Imported shipments totaled 3,163,374 barrels in April, down -11% YoY (nearly 400,000 barrels). The decline was driven by a -9.2% decline YoY in Mexican imports, which started to lap tough comps from accelerated 2022 growth. Other countries with significant declines include the Netherlands (-24.2% YoY), Ireland (-28.3%), Canada (-10.1%) and Belgium (-57.6%).
Germany (+30.6%) and Italy (+27.1%) were “bright spots” for imports in April, according to Kosmal. Non-alcoholic (NA) imported beer also increased in the month, by nearly +20,000 barrels (+59.6% YoY), led by NA growth from the Netherlands and Mexico.
Total imports declined -2.4% YTD, with an estimated 12,755,934 barrels imported YTD through April.
The BI’s economic reports for May are scheduled to be released July 7.