Circana: A-B Declines Decelerate Thru Late May; Constellation Back to No. 2 Beer Vendor YTD

State of BevAlc Report: Non-Alc Gaining Share of Sip, BevAlc Losing Displays

Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) trends continue to improve in the latest monthly off-premise scans report from market research firm Circana. Meanwhile, positive growth trends for Molson Coors and Constellation Brands – the two largest gainers from A-B’s declines – decelerated, according to data through May 19.

Dollar sales for A-B’s portfolio, which is still the No. 1 overall beer vendor in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. multi-outlet plus convenience) year-to-date (YTD), have now declined -8.7%, while volume has declined -9.4%. In the last four weeks (L4W), A-B dollar sales (-1.8%) and volume (-2.8%) declines were significantly smaller, and were actually less than declines for competitor Molson Coors. In the previous four-week period (ending April 21), A-B dollar sales declined -6.3% and volume declined -7.4%.

Molson Coors dollar sales declined -7.1% in the last four weeks, and volume declined -8.3%. In the previous four-week period, Molson Coors dollar sales were flat YoY (-0.1%), while volume declined -1.5%. The recent declines saw Molson Coors drop back to the No. 3 beer vendor by dollar sales, with YTD dollar sales increasing +6.6% and volume +5.4%. Molson Coors ended 2023 as the No. 3 beer vendor in Circana-tracked channels, but had moved up to No. 2 earlier in 2024.

Constellation Brands, back at No. 2, increased dollar sales +5.7% and volume +4.5% in the L4W, and has now increased dollar sales +8% and volume +7% YTD. While outpacing Molson Coors, Constellation’s growth decelerated slightly versus the previous four-week period, which saw YoY dollar sales and volume growth of +6.5% and +5.1%, respectively

Constellation is also outpacing Molson Coors in c-stores, increasing dollar sales +4.6% in the L4W and +10.1% YTD. Molson Coors c-store dollar sales declined -8.9% YoY in the L4W and are up +2.5% YTD. A-B’s largest declines are in c-stores (dollar sales -10.1% YTD, volume -10.6%). However, those declines also decelerated in the L4W: dollar sales -3.9%, volume -4.9%.

The majority of the top 25 beer vendors by dollar sales in c-stores recorded YoY declines in the L4W, with double-digit declines from Pabst (dollar sales -14.3%, volume -15.6%); D.G. Yuengling & Son (dollar sales -16.8%, volume -17.5%); Tilray Brands (-11.5%, volume -4.7%); The Gambrinus Company (dollar sales and volume -10.7%); and Artisanal Brewing Ventures (dollar sales -17.2%, volume -18.3%).

Of the 10 vendors to record dollar sales gains in the L4W in c-stores, four recorded double- or triple-digit gains: Kirin-Lion/New Belgium (dollar sales +18.3%, volume +17%); Monster Brewing (dollar sales +56.6%, volume +57.7%); AriZona Beverages (dollar sales +224.9%, volume +200.9%); and Happy Dad (dollar sales +85%, volume +82.8%).

While Monster rebranded all its bev-alc business as Monster Brewing this year, Circana still separates Monster Brewing and CANarchy, Monster’s craft arm, as two separate beer vendors. CANarchy also remains in the top 25 in c-stores, with dollar sales (-2.4%) and volume (-3%) both declining in the L4W.

Happy Dad, which makes hard seltzer and hard tea (as of this year) entered the top 25 c-store beer vendors list for the first time. The company’s dollar sales and volume have increased triple-digits YTD: +128.6% and +126.8%, respectively. The company is not on the top vendors list for all Circana-tracked channels, but is the 25th largest beer vendor in grocery – a feat it achieved earlier this year, knocking Great Lakes Brewing off of the list.

Sapporo is no longer a top 25 vendor in c-store thanks to Happy Dad’s gains. In the previous Circana report (ending April 21), Sapporo dollar sales increased +0.2% in the L4W and declined -2% YTD.

In grocery, A-B’s dollar sales were flat in the L4W, while volume declined -1.5%. Still, the company’s dollar sales (-8%) and volume (-8.8%) declined YTD. Molson Coors’ declines also occurred in grocery in the L4W (dollar sales -5.4%, volume -7.2%), while Constellation Brands remained in the black (dollar sales +6.1%, volume +4.2%).

Beyond Constellation, seven of the top 25 beer vendors in grocery recorded YoY dollar sales gains in the L4W:

  • Mark Anthony Brands (dollar sales +1.2%, volume -0.7%);
  • Diageo Beer Company (dollar sales +3%, volume +2%);
  • Kirin-Lion (dollar sales +2.9%, volume +0.7%);
  • Sierra Nevada Brewing (dollar sales +5.7%, volume +1.5%);
  • Athletic Brewing (dollar sales +59.9%, volume +62.2%);
  • Prestige Beverage (dollar sales +59%, volume +58.6%);
  • Happy Dad (dollar sales +41.9%, volume +41.1%).

Of the 18 top 25 beer vendors in grocery to record YoY declines in the L4W, five recorded double-digit declines:

  • Yuengling (dollar sales -14.1%, volume -16%);
  • FIFCO USA (dollar sales -10.3%, volume -11.3%);
  • Tilray Brands (dollar sales -14.9%, volume -13.3%);
  • CANarchy (dollar sales -11.5%, volume -11.7%);
  • Deschutes Brewery (dollar sales -14.7%, volume -17.7%).

Imports On Track to Pass Domestic Premiums As No. 1 Beer Segment YTD

Total beer dollar sales declined -0.5% YTD and -1.4% YoY in the L4W, while volume declined -2.3% YTD and -3% in the L4W. Imports (3.5% YoY), domestic sub-premium (+1%), flavored malt beverages (+4.9%), domestic super premium (+3.5%) and non-alcoholic (NA) beer (+25.7%) each outpaced the overall category dollar sales growth in the four-week period.

Still, only three segments remain in the black YTD, including imports (dollar sales +5.4% YTD), FMBs (+10.8%) and NA beer (+29.1%).

Imports, which led all segments in dollar sales in the L4W, is on track to pass domestic premium as the No. 1 beer segment by dollar sales YTD, with the two segments now within $140 million of each other. Domestic premium dollar sales have declined -6.3% YTD, to $4.08 million, while import dollar sales have increased to $3.95 million.

Imports are already the No. 1 segment in c-stores, and continues to add distance between itself and No. 2 domestic premium, with dollar sales increasing +5.3% YTD and +2.7% YoY in the L4W. Meanwhile, domestic premium dollar sales declined -8.3% YTD and -9.6% in the L4W – the largest decline among beer segments in the four-week period.

Total beer dollar sales in c-stores declined -2.1% in the L4W and volume declined -4.6%. Beyond domestic premiums, three other segments fared worse than the total category in the channel: craft (dollar sales -5.3%, volume -6.6%), hard seltzer (dollar sales -7.5%, volume -13.4%) and hard cider (dollar sales -7.7%, volume -8.4%).

In grocery, total beer dollar sales declined -0.6% YTD and -1.4% YoY in the L4W. All five of the segments in decline in the L4W outpaced total beer’s declines:

  • Domestic premium dollar sales -5.5%, volume -7.6%;
  • Craft dollar sales -5.2%, volume -3.1%;
  • Hard seltzer dollar sales -11.8%, volume -14.6%;
  • Hard cider dollar sales -5.3%, volume -5.9%;
  • Assorted dollar sales -37.8%, volume -38.6%.