Europe’s hot and dry growing season will result in lower yields this year from some of the world’s largest hop producing countries, global hop supplier BarthHaas reported Tuesday.
Germany – which recorded the second largest hop acreage in 2021 after the U.S. – is expected to record a hop yield of 38.103 tonnes this year, -18% below its average yield and -20.4% below 2021 yields. In 2021, the U.S. (25,200 hectares/62,271 acres) and Germany (20,600 hectares/50,904 acres) accounted for about 73% of the global hop acreage, according to BarthHaas in a July report.
The Czech Republic, which accounted for the third largest hop acreage in 2021 (about 12,355 acres), is also expected to have a “very poor crop” this year, declining to an estimated 4.7 tonnes. The country recorded a record crop harvest of 8.306 tonnes in 2021.
An average crop yield is expected from the U.S.
“What all of this means for the markets is very hard to gauge,” BarthHaas said in its report. “There is certainly supply from previous crops that will help to mitigate the shortfall, but these inventories are not necessarily of the varieties that are most needed.”
The harvest of “early maturing” hop varieties such as Hallertau Mittelfrüh and Northern Brewer will be the most impacted by this year’s environmental conditions, due to persistent droughts in Europe, BarthHaas said. Later maturing hop varieties may be able to recover after the rainfall recorded in late August. However, August “did not bring the desired recovery” that was anticipated for hops, and “the challenges of this hot and dry year have only intensified,” BarthHaas added in a blog post this week.
Global hop acreage grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2021, increasing +0.8% in 62,886 hectares (nearly 155,395 acres), BarthHaas reported in July. That persistent growth trend is expected to end in 2022, with an estimated 62,530 hectares (154,515 acres) of hops globally by the end of the crop year.
The decline is “urgently necessary,” as the market is oversupplied, BarthHaas said. While global beer output increased +4% in 2021 to 1.86 billion hectoliters (hl) compared to 1.79 billion hl in 2020, the output was below 2019 levels (1.91 billion hl).
“Overall, we believe there is enough supply available to satisfy demand, but it will require the cooperation and flexibility from brewers with regards to crop year and varieties,” BarthHaas wrote in the latest report. “The 2022 crop will also present an opportunity to make corrections to over-contracted forward positions. Finding the right price point for every variety in the spot market will prove tricky in view of a short crop [in] 2022 in combination with inventories from previous crops at very variable levels.
“What is certain is that forward prices will be higher than in the past,” the company continued. “Growers are facing significant cost increases, much higher than general inflation, and will not be able to operate at historic price levels. We also encourage brewers to embrace modern varieties that are better suited to the changing climate and provide more stable yields than the well-known workhorses of the past.”