Through the first days of September, year-to-date off-premise beer category dollar sales are up 16.4%, according to market research firm IRI.
Total beer sales have reached $30.1 billion in multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores, the firm reported. Nevertheless, off-premise growth hasn’t been enough to offset the growth in the on-premise, as the beer industry’s trade groups have projected a $22 billion shortfall in sales by year end.
Still, the segments leading growth in the off-premise were flavored malt beverages (+78%), in which IRI includes hard seltzers, non-alcoholic beer (+38.7%), and domestic super premiums (+20.2%). Dollar sales of craft beer increased 14.1% year-to-date. Imports were up 13.2%. The only segment in decline is assorted packs, down 13.5% year-to-date.
For the four weeks ending September 6, the Sunday before the Labor Day holiday, beer category sales increased 12.9%, indicating a slight deceleration from their 12-week (+13.9%) and 52-week trends (+13.5%).
Off-premise dollar sales of FMBs totaled $4.76 billion year-to-date through September 6, according to IRI. In the 52 weeks that ended September 6, FMB sales reached $6.06 billion. The segment has gained 5.47 dollar share points year-to-date, the largest gain of any beer category segment.
Gobbling up the majority of share in the hard seltzer space are the brand families of large manufacturers, including Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Hard Seltzer, Boston Beer’s Truly Hard Seltzer, Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Bud Light Seltzer, Constellation Brands’ Corona Hard Seltzer and Molson Coors’ Vizzy Hard Seltzer, according to a report from market research firm Nielsen earlier this week. Of those, only White Claw and Truly entered the market before the start of the year; both White Claw and Truly, which maintain the majority of the share in the segment, launched in 2016.
The White Claw brand family’s year-to-date dollar sales have increased 184.4%, to $1.378 billion, making it the seventh best selling brand family. Dollar sales of Truly, White Claw’s closest competitor, trails in dollar sales by $745 million. Year-to-date, Truly’s dollar sales have increased 165.5%, to $632 million, making it the 10th best selling brand family. Both brands have faced out-of-stock issues that left dollars on the table.
Bud Light Seltzer, now the No. 3 hard seltzer after its January 2020 launch, has earned $250 million year-to-date, making it the 22nd best selling brand family.
Variety packs account for nearly two-thirds of hard seltzer sales, and for each of the segment’s five lead brands, variety packs are the top earners year-to-date:
- White Claw Variety Pack No. 1 — $529,753,612;
- Bud Light Seltzer Variety Pack — $183,126,522;
- Truly Lemonade Mix Pack — $168,152,078;
- Corona Hard Seltzer Variety Pack — $118,852,461;
- Vizzy Hard Seltzer Variety Pack — $35,707,285.
Both White Claw and Truly have several variety packs, many of which outsell other brands in the segment. White Claw Variety Pack No. 2’s dollar sales have reached $257,167,469 year-to-date. Truly’s three additional variety packs have all seen growth: Truly Berry Mix Pack (+86.1%, to $165,118,289), Truly Tropical Mix Pack (+191.8%, to $118,053,259) and Truly Citrus Mix Pack (+19.7%, to $82,261,243).
Legacy Craft Flagships’ Growth Slowing
Early on in the pandemic, consumers gravitated toward familiar brands, such as Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, New Belgium Fat Tire and Samuel Adams Boston Lager, which caused these 30+-year-old brands’ off-premise sales to move into the black for the first time in years.
Growth has slowed a bit in the last four weeks as shoppers settle into new routines and move away from the pantry-loading that was prevalent in the spring.
For the four weeks ending September 6, Sierra Nevada Pale Ale’s dollar sales increased 3.8%, a deceleration from the brand’s 5.8% increase over the latest 12 weeks and 7.6% year-to-date increase. Fat Tire’s dollar sales over the latest four-week period increased 2.6%, a declaration from the brand’s 4.8% increase in the latest 12-week period and 4.2% year-to-date increase. Of this trio, Boston Lager had the largest increase in dollar sales over the last month (+8.3%), but has still decelerated compared to its trends in the latest 12 weeks (+12.2%) and year-to-date (+10.5%).
IPA remains the craft segment’s best selling style, with dollar sales increasing 21.1%, to $1.4 billion year-to-date.
Dollar sales of craft’s best selling IPA, Heineken-owned Lagunitas IPA, increased 20.9%, to $70.7 million, year-to-date, although the brand’s trends are also decelerating, to +11% over the last month.
Craft’s top five brands have all increased dollar sales year-to-date:
- Blue Moon Belgian White Ale (Molson Coors) +11%;
- Leinenkugel’s Shandy Seasonal (Molson Coors) +7.2%;
- Sierra Nevada Pale Ale +7.6%;
- Lagunitas IPA (Heineken) +20.9%;
- Shiner Bock (Gambrinus) +16.9%.
Seven of IRI’s top 30 craft brands were in decline year-to-date: A-B’s Shock Top Belgian White (-14.6%), A-B’s Goose Island IPA (-2.2%), Heineken’s Lagunitas Lil’ Sumpin Sumpin Ale (-22.5%), Boston Beer’s Samuel Adams Seasonal Variety Pack (-8.3%), all New Glarus products (-1.7%), SweetWater 420 Pale Ale (-1.4%) and Deschutes Fresh Squeezed (-0.8%).
Craft styles in decline were porters (-1.7%), brown beers (-0.6%), saisons/farmhouse ales (-5.5%), dark beers (-4.7%), extra special bitters (-15.7%), barleywines (-21.5%) and craft cider (-22.8%). However, the overall cider segment is up 9.5% year-to-date, with sales of $328.8 million.