Single-serve packages — driven by 19.2 oz. cans — have begun to claw back the dollar share they lost during pandemic shutdowns, according to Bump Williams Consulting (BWC).
“2021 started to show some signs of life where single-serves improved their share of category in key channels such as grocery and drug, reversing the share erosion that had become the norm, particularly in grocery,” Bump Williams wrote in a report citing NielsenIQ data. “In convenience, where singles play a major role, [dollar] share of beer has jumped back up close to 2018 levels with almost a full share point swing vs. where singles closed the year in 2020.”
Year-to-date through October 23, dollar sales of single-serve packs have increased +0.3% compared to the same period last year, according to NielsenIQ data shared by BWC. That’s a small increase, but the noteworthy datapoint is that single-serve packs’ share of beer dollars has increased after two years of declines. Single-serve offerings account for 14.8% of total beer sales, an increase of +0.5 sharepoints from last year, making them the third-best selling pack size at off-premise retailers.
“Single-serve share stalled in 2019 and took a big step back in 2020 when consumers shifted to larger formats amidst the stockpiling phase of early COVID,” Williams wrote. “2021 thus far has been somewhat of a bounce back year for single-serve SKUs due in large part to the resurgence and rebirth of convenience stores post pantry-loading and working from home; and while YoY trends might not look overly impressive at +0.3%, the real signs of strength are coming in the form of category share where single-serves are climbing back toward 15% by posting gains where a lot of other formats have taken a step back after their strong 2020.”
Within single-serve packages, dollar sales of 19.2 oz. cans have increased +33.2% year-to-date through October 23, and increased share +0.3 points to 1%.
“Still very much an emerging format, 19.2 oz cans touted triple-digit growth rates from 2018 through 2020 and continue to stand out in terms of magnitude throughout 2021 so far at +33%,” Williams wrote. “After making a big splash in 2018 where dollar sales jumped by more than 5x, 19.2oz cans have steadily gained share of beer each year and have finally hit the 1% mark in 2021.”
Dollar sales of 24 and 25 oz. cans — which are tracked together and make up the largest segment of single-serve packages — increased +2.5% year-to-date through October 23. They account for 9.1% of total beer sales. All other sizes of single-serve packages have declined in dollar sales. Since 2018, dollar sales of single-serve 12 oz., 22 oz., 40 oz. and 25.4 oz packages have declined each year.
“While single-serves have yet to fully recover their share of category that has slowly been chipped away at since its peak, the recent share ‘wins’ in 2021 do show that there is still some life in this format, albeit with a bit of a different look vs. that of years past where 750 mL and 22 oz. bottles were in vogue,” Williams wrote.
Although single-serve offerings are most popular in convenience stores, which saw decreased foot traffic during the pandemic-driven shutdowns in 2020, their dollar share of overall beer has increased in other off-premise channels. In grocery stores, single-serves’ share increased 0.2 sharepoints, to 5.9%. Single-serves gained 0.8 sharepoints in drug stores and accounted for 6.9% of beer dollar sales in 2021. Their share has declined in liquor stores, dropping 0.5 sharepoints to 8.7%.
In convenience stores, single-serves accounted for 24.3% of all beer dollars, an increase of 0.7 sharepoints over 2020 that brought the segment back to near its 2018 level of 24.6%.
Flavored malt beverages account for nearly half (46.1%) of all single-serve dollars, but their share has declined -0.8 sharepoints this year as several other segments have gained share.
Domestic premium single-serve packages’ share increased +0.3 sharepoints, to 9.2%. Craft’s share increased +0.2 sharepoints, to 8.4%. Hard seltzer posted the largest share gain (+1.9) and account for 11.1% of beer category single-serve dollars.
Imports’ share increased +0.8 sharepoints, nudging them past below premium (-0.4 sharepoints, to 14.8%) to become the second largest single-serve segment at 14.9%. Domestic super premiums’ share remained flat at 13.4%.
Four of the top 20 single-serve SKUs delivering growth year-to-date are also the four best-selling single-serve innovation SKUs: Modelo Chelada Pina Picante, White Claw Surge Hard Seltzer Cranberry, Smirnoff Ice Blue Raspberry, and Truly Iced Tea Hard Seltzer Lemon.
“Based on the numbers we see moving out the front door of these off-premise retailers, it would appear that consumers have started to drift back toward their pre-COVID shopping habits where the primary focus is less about quantity above all else, and instead a bit more about those incremental purchases or occasions met with the single-serve SKUs,” Williams wrote. “It is exactly because of this shift that suppliers and retailers alike have recognized the re-kindled viability of the single-serve SKUs and are increasing their focus, depth [and] shelf space reallocation in this area.
“This growing role of singles is very much a multi-segment, multi-channel trend (with varying degrees of magnitude) throughout 2021 so far,” he continued. “Plenty of opportunities continue to exist in the form of improved assortment and penetration ahead of 2022.”