On-Premises Update & 2025 Outlook – CGA by NIQ December 2024
Beer without Hard Seltzers outperformed traditional Bev-Al categories in both value and volume trend over the L52 weeks.
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Beer without Hard Seltzers outperformed traditional Bev-Al categories in both value and volume trend over the L52 weeks.
This report, which provides a Q4 beverage category update, features exclusive content created just for our Brewbound Insider audience!
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Beer had an expected St. Patrick’s Day boost, with dollar sales in Circana-tracked off-premise channels increasing +5.3% year-over-year (YoY) in the week ending March 17, according to the market research firm.
Beer sales at bars and restaurants have declined in both dollar sales (-0.7%) and volume (-5.7%) in the 12-month period through the end of January, according to NIQ’s on-premise data firm CGA.
A majority of legal-drinking-age (LDA) consumers believe that states need to allow for direct-to-consumer (DTC) shipping of beer, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Sovos ShipCompliant, a bev-alc shipping and distribution compliance company.
Draft beer volume declined -20% during St. Patrick’s Day weekend, due in part to this year’s misalignment of the drinking-centric holiday and March Madness, according to on-premise data firm BeerBoard.
Could the luck of the Irish be with bev-alc producers this month? Nearly one-third (32%) of consumers plan to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day, according to consumer research firm Numerator.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for beer at home continues to tick up, increasing +3% last month (seasonally unadjusted) versus February 2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Off-premise dollar sales of craft beer declined -2.7% in the four-week period ending February 25 in Circana-tracked multi-outlet and convenience store scans. Craft scans are now down -2% year-to-date (YTD) through late February, amounting to a loss of around $12.3 million for the segment, with sales of $619.9 million, the Chicago-based market research firm reported. This comes as the average case price of craft beer is up +$0.75 in the last four weeks, to $43.44, and up +$0.64 YTD, to $43.39.
Domestic tax paid shipments increased +1.8% in January 2024 versus January 2023, marking the first year-over-year (YoY) increase since February 2023, according to the Beer Institute (BI), citing estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
On-premise sales velocity on Super Bowl Sunday (February 11) was down -19% versus an average Sunday this year, and -4% versus 2023, according to CGA, NIQ’s on-premise market research arm.
Beer ordering improved slightly in February, but remains in contraction, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) in the latest Beer Purchasers’ Index.
3 Tier Beverages’ Mary Mills and Stephanie Roatis break down the early year data, including positive cider trends in convenience, non-alc trends, hard seltzer rationalization and much more. They also get into the growing trend of private label hard seltzer and whether anyone can break through the hard coffee curse.
This time last year, Brewers Association (BA) chief economist Bart Watson warned that the U.S. hop supply was becoming “unsustainable,” and predicted a drop in hop production in 2023.
Analysts at Bernstein have answered the No. 1 question they were asked last year: What is happening to U.S. alcohol consumption and what does it mean for the future of the sector?
3 Up, 3 Down with 3 Tier Beverages is a quarterly insights series available to Brewbound Insiders, via the Chicago-headquartered, bev-alc-focused consulting and data firm.