Ready-to-drink and serve products have surpassed $10 billion dollar sales in off-premise channels in the latest 52 weeks ending July 8, representing a 7% increase compared to the previous period, according to an NIQ report released on Wednesday. The mid-year update on RTDs provides data and insights into leading segments, channels with the most opportunity, and how legislation could change accessibility. Here are the top seven highlights:
FMB and Hard Seltzer Mature
After explosive growth over the past few years, the RTD and RTS category now represents a 12% share of total alcohol dollar sales. But how do segments stack up against other BevAlc categories? Total RTD/S earned $10.9 billion in the last 52 weeks off-premise, right behind import beer. Sales for flavored malt beverages (FMBs) in the same period reached $4.4 billion, right behind vodka, and seltzers at $3.8 billion nipped at whiskey’s heels illustrating how the segments have matured. Spirits based RTDs reached $1.5 million in sales, followed by wine-based RTDS and RTS products.
Hard Seltzers Dollar Share Continues to Fall
Spirits-based RTDs and FMBs are gaining share at the expense of hard seltzer: dollar share for FMBs has grown 21% versus the same 52-week period last year, and now occupies 41% of total RTD dollar share. Spirits represent 14.4% of dollar share, up 55% since the same period last year. Meanwhile hard seltzers, which represent 36% of dollar share, have declined 14%. While some hard seltzer volume loss is going to spirits-based RTDs, FMBs, and RTS, the large volume losses are from beer, wine, and top spirits categories.
Bright spots for the segment include variety packs, which are holding 57.2% of hard seltzer dollar share by flavor, up 1.4 points from last year. As for flavor types: Ranch water seltzers sales reached $96.3 million in the latest 52 weeks, up 18.8% compared to this time last year. Other flavors experiencing growth since this time last year: Blackberry flavored (+177.7%) and orange flavored seltzers (+42.7%) but while brands will have the unique opportunity to introduce new flavors, the report cautioned that product life cycles will shorten.
Hard Tea, Soda Leading FMBs
FMBs are trending well above year-ago comparisons, with hard tea and hard soda leading growth and consumers shifting to the segment from hard seltzer and beer. Sales for hard tea reached $1,144.5 million in the last 52 weeks, up 39% compared to this time last year, and hard soda is up 85.8% to $80.3 million. In the lead of those segments is Twisted Tea, which accounts for 89% of hard tea growth and Hard Mtn Dew accounting for 85% of growth. Simply Spiked similarly is the driver for hard lemonade (up 17.4%) accounting for 95% of hard lemonade growth.
Hard Seltzers and FMBs Sales Condensed to Fewer Brands
Five brands account for 89% of malt-based hard seltzer dollar sales, which include White Claw on top for malt-based dollar sales, followed by Truly, Bud Light, Topo Chico and Vizzy. For FMBs the top five brands account for 65% of dollar sales including Twisted Tea, followed by Mike’s, Smirnoff, Seagram’s and Cayman Jack. Spirits on the other hand are a little less condensed with the top five accounting for 59% of dollar sales including High Noon, Cutwater, Monaco, On the Rocks and NUTRL. Spirits based products are expected to have continued regional product fragmentation as distribution opportunities expand.
The mix looks a little different when it comes to growth drivers for seltzer ranked by absolute dollar change since last year: White Claw is still the top driver, but Topo Chico, Happy Dad, Lone River Ranch Water, and Modelo lead growth as well. In wine-based growth, BuzzBallz and BeatBox are on top.
Wellness Attributes Trending
Premium RTD offerings, as well as those with functional benefits, are going to see some of the best growth in the back half of this year and into 2024, according to the report. Top trending attributes experiencing large growth rates in comparison to total RTDs include labels that advertise their contents as free from high fructose corn syrup, environmentally friendly, tetra-pak certified, low-calorie and no sugar added.
RTS Still Niche, With Premium Opportunity
Ready-to-serve (RTS) products are a niche piece of total spirit sales (0.3%) with total off-premise sales over $300 million in the past 52 weeks. Facing slight declines, trends have been improving as premium innovation launches enter the market. RTS products are popular during key holidays—Cinco de Mayo, 4th of July, and year-end. While sales have declined 0.1% since last year, alternative pack sizes and super and ultra premium are leading growth.
The segment faces small declines year over year, with shifting of volume to traditional spirits categories – tequila and whiskey. But RTS is also gaining volume from some large categories, including hard seltzers and wine, aiding the segment to return to growth in the coming months.
Battle for the Convenience Channel
Convenience represents the biggest opportunity for RTDs, but spirits-based cocktails face limitations due to legal restraints. Convenience dollar share for RTDs is up 14.2% versus last year. As of right now only 22% of c-stores can sell spirits, which is equivalent to approximately 27,000 stores across the total U.S.
However, as legal changes occur, a multi-million dollar opportunity could open up for those products. The report referenced 7,000 convenience stores in California that have the potential to sell spirits-based RTDs if recent proposed legislation is passed.