Craft beer off-premise dollar sales in the last four weeks (ending July 16) increased +1.2% versus the same period in 2022, according to market research firm Circana in its monthly beer report.
The latest data indicates improvement for the segment well into the summer selling season, despite craft still posting declines year-to-date (YTD). Craft dollar sales are still down -0.8%, losing 0.39 share points, to 10.19% share of total beer dollars.
Craft beer volume in the last four weeks (L4W) declined -2.9% year-over-year (YoY), an improvement over YTD volume declines of -5.1%. The segment lost 0.19 share points in the period, to 9.96% share of total beer dollars.
Total beer trends have remained relatively consistent, with dollar sales increasing +3% YTD and volume declining -2.3%. In the L4W, beer dollar sales increased +3.1% and volume declined -1.8%.
The category’s gains continue to be led by non-alcoholic beer (dollar sales +31.4% YTD, volume +19.5%), flavored malt beverages (dollar sales +18.9%, volume +13.4%) and imports (dollar sales +11%, volume +6.5%). In the L4W, trends for imports accelerated with dollar sales increasing +14.8% YoY and passing domestic premium as the No. 1 beer segment by dollar sales. Non-alc trends also improved, with dollar sales increasing +32.9% YoY, while FMB growth slowed slightly (+16.7% YoY).
Trends are more glowing in the convenience channel, which has become a top growth channel for craft beer. In the L4W, craft dollar sales in the channel increased +6.9% YoY and volume increased +2.6%. Year-to-date, craft dollar sales increased +4.5%, but volume is down -0.2%.
Total beer increased convenience dollar sales +6.4% YoY in the L4W and volume +0.1%. YTD, dollar sales are up +5.8% and volume is down -0.6%.
The channel has also become a growth opportunity area for cider, which increased dollar sales +7.6% YoY in the L4W and +7.3% YTD. One caveat is that cider recorded the largest price increase YTD (+$3.25 to $50.49 per case) and second highest YoY in the L4W (+$2.83, to $50.90 per case). However, the segment has also been able to record volume growth in the channel: +2.6% in the L4W and +0.4% YTD.
The food channel continues to pose a challenge for craft, but again, trends have improved in the latest weeks. Craft dollar sales YTD declined -3.6% and volume -7.5% in the channel. In the L4W, craft dollar sales declined -1.5% and volume -5.3%.
Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug Up Triple Digits YTD
Nine of the top 15 craft beer brands recorded YoY dollar sales gains in the L4W, including double-digits gains from five brands: New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (+13.8%) and Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (+61%); Sierra Nevada’s Hazy Little Thing (+10.2%); Anheuser-Busch’s (A-B) Kona Big Wave (+52.5%); and Bell’s Two Hearted (+10.9%).
Seven of the top 15 craft brands recorded YoY declines in the period, including No. 1 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon (dollar sales -2%, volume -5.8%), followed by Leinenkugel’s Seasonal Shandy (dollars -2.6%, volume -6.5%), Lagunitas IPA (dollars -10.8%, volume -15.1%); Firestone Walker 805 Cerveza (dollars -1.3%, volume -4.3%); Boston Beer’s Samuel Adams Seasonal (dollars -1.4%, volume -6.4%) and Boston Lager (dollars -1.1%, volume -6%); and Founders All Day IPA (dollars -6.9%, volume -11.3%).
Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, the No. 4 craft brand by dollar sales, remains the largest growth brand YTD within the top 30 craft brands, with dollar sales increasing 123% YTD and volume +119.4%. No. 26 Goose Island’s Tropical Beer Hug double IPA has also maintained triple-digit growth YTD (dollar sales +124.9%, volume +114.9%).
14 of A-B’s Top 15 Brands Record Volume Declines YTD
A-B’s declines remained consistent in the most recent four-week period versus the period in Circana’s June report (L4W ending June 18): dollar sales -11.2% YoY in L4W ending July 16 versus dollar sales -11.4% YoY in L4W ending June 18.
YTD, A-B’s dollar sales are down -5.6% and volume is down -10%. The company has lost 3.04 share points of beer YTD, to 33.35% share.
Nine of the A-B’s top 15 brands recorded dollar sales declines YTD, with growth recorded for Michelob Ultra (+4.3% YTD), Busch Light (+3.5%), Natural Light (+2.5%), Bud Ice (+2.9%), Natural Ice (+0.1%) and Natty Daddy Lager (+6.%). All of A-B’s top 15 brands recorded volume declines YTD, except for Michelob Ultra (+0.4%).
In the L4W, the only notable sales gains from that top 15 list came from Natty Daddy Lager (+9% YoY) and Michelob Ultra (+1%). Natty Daddy Lager was the only top 15 A-B brand to record volume growth in the period (+1.5% YoY), with Michelob Ultra volume decline -2.2%.
A-B’s declines persisted as its top three competitors all continued to post dollar sales gains: Molson Coors +10.3% YTD, L4W +15.7% YoY; Constellation Brands +13.7% YTD, L4W +17.3% YoY; and Mark Anthony Brands +4% YTD, L4W +1.3% YoY.
A few brands gained traction in Circana’s top 25 brand families list YTD. Smirnoff passed New Belgium and Bud Speciality over the month to rank No. 13, increasing dollar sales +4.7% YTD. Mark Anthony Brands’ Mikes Hard Lemonade moved up from No. 25 to No. 23, passing Sierra Nevada and Constellation Brands’ Pacifico, despite dollar sales decline -1.5% YTD. Pacifico (+28.3% YTD) also passed Sierra Nevada, which is now last on the list, despite a +1.2% increase in dollar sales YTD.
Latest Week: Beer Dollars +3.2% YoY, Led by Imports (+15%)
In the latest one-week period (ending July 23), total bev-alc dollar sales increased +3.3% YoY in Circana-tracked off-premise channels, according to analyst Scott Scanlon’s weekly report.
Total bev-alc dollar sales also increased week-over-week (+1%). Volume declined -1.8% YoY.
Beer dollar sales increased +3.2% YoY, while volume declined -1.8%. Category growth continues to be driven by imports, which increased dollar sales +15% YoY in the latest week. In the last four weeks, beer dollar sales increased +3.9% and volume declined -1.1%.
Scanlon called out a handful of brands, including Modelo, which increased dollar sales +26.% YoY and volume +21.8% in the latest week, continuing to outpace the category. Yuengling also continues to post growth, now just outside the top 15 beer brands, increasing dollar sales +34.3% and volume +29.9%.
Additionally, Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked, an FMB produced through a partnership with the Coca-Cola Company, is still “just outside” the top 25 beer brands “with strong growth,” – dollar sales +80.4%, volume +71.4% – nipping at the heels of Cayman Jack.
Craft dollar sales increased +0.1% YoY in the latest week, while volume declined -1.1%. In the L4W, craft dollar sales increased +1.6% and volume declined -2.4%.
Scanlon also analyzed trends for ready-to-drink bev-alc (RTDs), including hard seltzers and canned cocktails. RTD dollar sales in the latest week increased +3.4% YoY, while volume declined -3.7%. In the L4W, dollar sales increased +5%, while volume declined -2%.
E. & J. Gallo’s High Noon Sun Sips – a spirits-based hard seltzer brand – “gained ground on Tito’s” in the latest week, increasing dollar sales +39% and volume +30.9% YoY. The brand could jump Tito’s as the No. 1 spirits brand by dollar sales over the next holiday, as it did over the July 4 weekend, Scanlon wrote.
Scanlon also highlighted growth from BuzzBallz – dollar sales +50.5%, volume +41.7% – which is “poised” to jump Jim Beam as the No. 8 spirits brand.