Domestic tax paid shipments from U.S. breweries have now declined for seven months in a row, declining an estimated -7.4% (nearly 14.3 million barrels) in September 2023 versus September 2022, according to the Beer Institute (BI) in the trade group’s latest round of monthly economic reports.
September 2023 volume totaled an estimated 13.2 million barrels. The month marked the third largest YoY decline so far this year, after May (-12.2%) and June (-9.7%).
Year-to-date, domestic tax paid shipments declined -6.5%, a decline of more than 8 million barrels versus the same nine-month period in 2022. February was the only month so far this year to record YoY shipment gains (+1%).
“The beer industry is not alone in facing headwinds during this time period, with consumer confidence levels dropping from earlier in the summer and consumers across income groups pulling back on spending,” the BI wrote.
September state shipments declined -10.2% year-over-year (YoY). Nearly every state recorded declines in the month, including large beer states such as California (-10.9%), Illinois (-16.1%), New York (-20%) and Ohio (-14.9%).
Oklahoma (+5.1%), South Carolina (+0.9%) and Vermont (+10.3%) were the only states to record YoY growth. Idaho was flat YoY.
YTD state shipments are down -3.9%. Six states are up YTD: Alaska (+0.4%), Arkansas (+0.2%), Idaho (+3.4%), Indiana (+0.9%), Iowa (+7.4%) and Kansas (+1.3%).
Import shipments were down for the second month in a row, down -13.6% YoY, to nearly 3.16 million barrels. Shipments are now down -1.8% YTD, versus -0.3% through August.
Mexican imports were down -12.8% YoY (-380,000 barrels), marking the second consecutive month of declines for the No. 1 beer import country. Mexican imports are now up +0.7% YTD.
“With inventory challenges expected to improve in the near future, we would expect to see improved trends for the final months of 2023,” the BI wrote, likely referencing reported inventory challenges with Constellation Brands’ Mexican import brands (Modelo, Corona and Pacifico).
Canada (+23.6%) and Ireland (+5.1%) were “two of the few countries to experience growth.”
Non-alcoholic imported beer recorded a +13.6% YoY increase in September shipments, and +23.2% increase YoY.